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Demos

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Re: Romney's VP choice
Reply #20 - May 19^th, 2012 at 5:02pm

west2004 wrote on May 19^th, 2012 at 4:51pm:

When two competitors later join together they combine their support.

You're talking about Paul being able to get people who weren't supporting Romney to support him; however, Paul couldn't deliver those votes for himself. And nothing you're suggesting Paul can bring is something that Romney hasn't already been able to achieve himself, i.e., winning over independents and finding support among younger voters.

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west2004

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Re: Romney's VP choice
Reply #21 - May 19^th, 2012 at 5:08pm

Self-radicalizing Harry wrote on May 19^th, 2012 at 4:54pm:

No they don't. Party support, which is what you see in primaries, goes to the nominee naturally.

I am talking about individual voters.

If Ron Paul has Y supporters that voted for him in the primaries, let's say X Ron Paul supporters would only vote for a ticket with Ron Paul on it (and I would bet they exist). Without Paul on the ticket, Romney would get the support of Y - X at best. With Ron Paul on the ticket he picks up the votes of X. Whatever value you give X, it is a positive number. And that is just from the Republican party. The debate is really about whether X is bigger for Ron Paul than for others. And I think it is at least as big as the other options. But that is only part of the story. There are Libertarians and Independents that would otherwise not support a Romney ticket, and may even support Obama. And in this category, I think Paul or all is better than most of the potential nominees.

Look at LNFs most notable independents. At least 2 that I know of (Forgotten Centrist and TowardLiberty) would be at least more likely to support a ticket that has Ron Paul on it and have zero chance of supporting Romney in any other case (the former will likely vote Obama).

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Self-radicalizing Harry

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Re: Romney's VP choice
Reply #22 - May 19^th, 2012 at 5:10pm

west2004 wrote on May 19^th, 2012 at 5:08pm:

I am talking about individual voters.

If Ron Paul has Y supporters that voted for him in the primaries, let's say X Ron Paul supporters would only vote for a ticket with Ron Paul on it (and I would bet they exist). Without Paul on the ticket, Romney would get the support of Y - X at best. With Ron Paul on the ticket he picks up the votes of X. Whatever value you give X, it is a positive number. And that is just from the Republican party. The debate is really about whether X is bigger for Ron Paul than for others. And I think it is at least as big as the other options. But that is only part of the story. There are Libertarians and Independents that would otherwise not support a Romney ticket, and may even support Obama. And in this category, I think Paul or all is better than most of the potential nominees.

Look at LNFs most notable independents. At least 2 that I know of (Forgotten Centrist and TowardLiberty) would be at least more likely to support a ticket that has Ron Paul on it and have zero chance of supporting Romney in any other case (the former will likely vote Obama).

I'm talking about the voters too. Paul's voters are microscopic when compared to those of the rest of the field. Half or more of them are probably libtards crossing over to screw things up.

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Rabbit_Reborn LNF Speaker LNF Bunker Offline Extremist. Posts: 10,674 Midwest	Re: Romney's VP choice Reply #23 - May 19^th, 2012 at 5:12pm I won't vote for Romney unless one of the Pauls is on the ticket. I'll vote third party (again).
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west2004

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Re: Romney's VP choice
Reply #24 - May 19^th, 2012 at 5:12pm

Demos wrote on May 19^th, 2012 at 5:02pm:

You're talking about Paul being able to get people who weren't supporting Romney to support him; however, Paul couldn't deliver those votes for himself. And nothing you're suggesting Paul can bring is something that Romney hasn't already been able to achieve himself, i.e., winning over independents and finding support among younger voters.

Are you claiming he has achieved absolute support of Independents and young people?

If I was good at mining gold, and another miner (not as good as me) decided to help me mine gold, I would end up with more total gold.

You said that you would choose a VP that would help with the base. Is not the base the area in which Romney is performing the best? Wouldn't the argument against Ron Paul you are making be equally, if not more, effective on your choices (Rubio, Rand Paul)?

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west2004 LNF Majority Leader Offline GO CUBS Posts: 6,071	Re: Romney's VP choice Reply #25 - May 19^th, 2012 at 5:13pm Rabbit_Reborn wrote on May 19^th, 2012 at 5:12pm: I won't vote for Romney unless one of the Pauls is on the ticket. I'll vote third party (again). Well that helps my argument.
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Self-radicalizing Harry LNF Speaker LNF Bunker Online I used to be Bert, but something went terribly wro Posts: 19,542 Gender:	Re: Romney's VP choice Reply #26 - May 19^th, 2012 at 5:14pm west2004 wrote on May 19^th, 2012 at 5:13pm: Well that helps my argument. How?
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Demos

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Re: Romney's VP choice
Reply #27 - May 19^th, 2012 at 5:36pm

west2004 wrote on May 19^th, 2012 at 5:12pm:

Are you claiming he has achieved absolute support of Independents and young people?

Are you going to claim Ron Paul could give him that? Look at the polls, Romney was performing better among independents than Paul in head-to-heads against Obama, and his support among independent voters is still high. What shows that Ron Paul on the ticket would improve his standing among independent voters? What shows that Paul could deliver those voters? Show me the data, show me some kind of proof. Something besides anecdotes about goldmining.

Quote:

You said that you would choose a VP that would help with the base.

As I mentioned earlier, studies have shown that Romney (or any Republican nominee for that matter) would be helped by moving slightly to the right (vice versa for a Democratic candidate), and a VP nominee like Rubio or Rand Paul would help Romney do that, and it helps these candidates are popular with the base.

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Wouldn't the argument against Ron Paul you are making be equally, if not more, effective on your choices (Rubio, Rand Paul)?

The argument that Paul won't help Romney with independents and young voters? I've never made the argument that Rand or Rubio would help him with those voters.

In the end, the VP nominee isn't a significant factor in voter choice, and there is no reason why the nominee has to provide "balance." So choose a conservative nominee that is well like by the Republican base.

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quiller LNF Speaker LNF Bunker Offline Reinstate dueling for Congress Posts: 21,948 michigan Gender:	Re: Romney's VP choice Reply #28 - May 19^th, 2012 at 6:19pm Romney would win a lot of evangelical Christians by naming Huckabee. Latinos---name Rubio. As for completely absorbing the Tea Party into the GOP? Palin. Let's treat women more fairly than the Dems treated Geraldine Ferraro --- or Hillary Clinton.
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Demos

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Re: Romney's VP choice
Reply #29 - May 19^th, 2012 at 7:14pm

quiller wrote on May 19^th, 2012 at 6:19pm:

Romney would win a lot of evangelical Christians by naming Huckabee. Latinos---name Rubio.

As for the former, this would presume Romney has a problem winning evangelical voters; his standing among evangelicals is lower than Bush or McCain, but they're going to vote for him. Perhaps Obama should name Huckabee.

As for the latter, nope, he doesn't help with Latinos.

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As for completely absorbing the Tea Party into the GOP? Palin.

The Tea Party is already essentially absorbed into the GOP, unless you don't consider running and participating in GOP primaries and politics being absorbed. Even so, why not choose some one like Rubio or Rand Paul who are also popular with the Tea Party, but aren't going to bring any of Palin's baggage from the last campaign either.

Besides, I highly doubt Palin wants to be number 2 again.

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