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west2004

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Re: Romney's VP choice
Reply #40 - May 20^th, 2012 at 2:11am

Demos wrote on May 19^th, 2012 at 5:36pm:

Are you going to claim Ron Paul could give him that?

No. I am claiming that in the absence of such absolute, someone who has support among those groups, no matter how little will add to that of Romney.

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What shows that Ron Paul on the ticket would improve his standing among independent voters? What shows that Paul could deliver those voters?

Quote:

As for whether Paul's supporters would get behind Romney, Benton said: "I think that is still up for grabs. I think that a lot of that is going to be determined by what plays out in the next several months up through Tampa. I think that, in a lot of ways, the ball is in the court of the Republican Party and in the court of Mitt Romney."

He added: "We're bringing forward an attitude of respect. We're also bringing forward specific things we believe in. Our people want to be respected in return. If our ideas are taken seriously and our people are treated with respect, the Republican Party has a chance to pick up a substantial number of their votes. On the flip side, if they treated the way they were in 2008, a lot of people are going to stay home and sit on their hands."

-- http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/05/ron-pauls-delegate-strategy-...

It is not absolute proof, but opinions on how people will act tend to lack such proof. Otherwise holding elections would be a waste of time.

It is generally understood, though, that Ron Paul has some very staunch supporters. Add Rabbit_Reborn to my list of those just on this forum that would at least consider supporting the republican ticket if Paul were on it.

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The argument that Paul won't help Romney with independents and young voters? I've never made the argument that Rand or Rubio would help him with those voters.

What I meant was: you argued that Romney does not need Ron Paul's help with Independents and young voters, because Romney is already doing better than Paul with those voters, but you state that Romney should pick someone that helps with the base, with which Romney has also, by virtue of being their nominee, done very well.

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west2004 LNF Majority Leader Offline GO CUBS Posts: 6,076	Re: Romney's VP choice Reply #41 - May 20^th, 2012 at 2:12am Self-radicalizing Harry wrote on May 19^th, 2012 at 5:14pm: How? Because he is a voter that will only vote republican if Paul is on the ticket. He is just the sort of voter that I was talking about.
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Re: Romney's VP choice
Reply #42 - May 20^th, 2012 at 7:39am

It's interesting to me that the biggest response is "shoring up the conservative base." That would make his campaign the opposite of the traditional format. That is, in many people's eyes he has run to the middle during the primaries and would then swing to the right for the general election.

I think he could get away with a Ron Paul choice because the swing to the right would be seen as a swing on financial/personal liberty issues rather than social issues. I'm not convinced it works with a primarily social conservative like Huckabee. That would come across as pandering. Well, it would to me anyway. Unfortunately, a lot of other social conservatives might eat it up.

He won't pick Paul though. I mean, I'd be delighted, but he won't do it.

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Demos

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Re: Romney's VP choice
Reply #43 - May 20^th, 2012 at 10:55am

west2004 wrote on May 20^th, 2012 at 2:11am:

I am claiming that in the absence of such absolute, someone who has support among those groups, no matter how little will add to that of Romney.

The question is does Ron Paul bring independents and young voters to Romney, and there's nothing that suggests he does.

Quote:

It is not absolute proof, but opinions on how people will act tend to lack such proof. Otherwise holding elections would be a waste of time.

What you offered is not proof of what independents and young voters will do if Paul is on the ticket, because it's about the convention, and you can certainly can find proof of how people will tend to act - that's why campaigns do polling and statistical analysis of trends.

Quote:

You state that Romney should pick someone that helps with the base, with which Romney has also, by virtue of being their nominee, done very well.

And? What's wrong with keeping the base happy? Even as the base lines up with Romney, there have still been questions and some grumbling. So, pick some one that will make them happy.

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Re: Romney's VP choice
Reply #44 - May 20^th, 2012 at 10:57am

west2004 wrote on May 19^th, 2012 at 1:55pm:

Independents. Especially those that are against expansion of military spending, and in favor of less government involvement in many social issues. He will gain Libertarians that may have not voted or written him in. He has a large following of young supporters, which is a major base of votes for Obama that can be pulled away.

As much as he can flip-flop, not even Romney can reform his political philosophy to come anywhere in the neighborhood of Ron Paul.

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west2004

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Re: Romney's VP choice
Reply #45 - May 20^th, 2012 at 11:53am

Demos wrote on May 20^th, 2012 at 10:55am:

The question is does Ron Paul bring independents and young voters to Romney, and there's nothing that suggests he does.

Quote:

Forty-five percent of Paul supporters said they would vote for Romney in the general election, and 39 percent said they would vote to reelect Obama.

--http://www.dailypaul.com/233698/ron-paul-supporters-falling-in-line-to-vote-for-...

There isn't any polling data I can find, but it seems logical to assume that many of that 39% would switch from Obama to Romney and that the 45% of Paul supporters that currently would vote Romney would grow.

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What you offered is not proof of what independents and young voters will do if Paul is on the ticket, because it's about the convention, and you can certainly can find proof of how people will tend to act - that's why campaigns do polling and statistical analysis of trends.

Right but they don't (that I can find) do polls of only Paul supporters regarding Paul as a VP. That is why one must take the fact that only 45% of Paul supporters plan to vote Romney and 39% plan to vote Obama. When those numbers are coupled with the known staunchness of Paul supporters, a quick analysis gives me the OPINION that Paul on the ticket will grow the number of Paul supporters that will vote Romney, and shrink the number that will vote Obama. He may, like the Palin pick, have to take the risk and make the pick, then find out what effect it had.

Again, this is an opinion of who I think he should pick.

Quote:

And? What's wrong with keeping the base happy? Even as the base lines up with Romney, there have still been questions and some grumbling. So, pick some one that will make them happy.

I must have misunderstood. I thought your pick was one meant to gain votes, rather then keep the base happy.

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west2004 LNF Majority Leader Offline GO CUBS Posts: 6,076	Re: Romney's VP choice Reply #46 - May 20^th, 2012 at 11:55am Phillip wrote on May 20^th, 2012 at 10:57am: As much as he can flip-flop, not even Romney can reform his political philosophy to come anywhere in the neighborhood of Ron Paul. I don't think they need to be in total agreement on policy to share the same ticket.
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Phillip LNF Speaker LNF Bunker Offline Josie dragged me here! Posts: 18,015	Re: Romney's VP choice Reply #47 - May 20^th, 2012 at 11:56am west2004 wrote on May 20^th, 2012 at 11:55am: I don't think they need to be in total agreement on policy to share the same ticket. Except they have opposing views on tons of subjects, including fundamental ones like social and international policy.
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west2004 LNF Majority Leader Offline GO CUBS Posts: 6,076	Re: Romney's VP choice Reply #48 - May 20^th, 2012 at 12:15pm Phillip wrote on May 20^th, 2012 at 11:56am: Except they have opposing views on tons of subjects, including fundamental ones like social and international policy. That is fine by me. They are closer on economic issues, and Paul would certainly strengthen Romney's credibility in that area.
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Demos

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Re: Romney's VP choice
Reply #49 - May 20^th, 2012 at 4:09pm

west2004 wrote on May 20^th, 2012 at 11:53am:

There isn't any polling data I can find, but it seems logical to assume that many of that 39% would switch from Obama to Romney and that the 45% of Paul supporters that currently would vote Romney would grow.

After having done this for a while, sometimes what seems logical in politics, usually isn't. It's just as likely that these voters will vote for someone else regardless of whether Paul is ticket.

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Right but they don't (that I can find) do polls of only Paul supporters regarding Paul as a VP. That is why one must take the fact that only 45% of Paul supporters plan to vote Romney and 39% plan to vote Obama.

When we started this discussion, it was about more than just Paul supporters, but independents and younger voters in general, and there's not much evidence at all that Paul will help Romney there.

Quote:

I must have misunderstood. I thought your pick was one meant to gain votes, rather then keep the base happy.

Based on what I've read, the VP doesn't give you any votes on any basis, ideological, regional, demographic, etc. Your best bet in a VP is to please your supporters.

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