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LNF House Leader

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An different perspective on China
Mar 11th, 2015 at 3:53pm
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Short video, less than 10 minutes. Friedman asserts China is a regional power.

1. He says it is wrong to judge China's progress by its economic growth alone, as the Chinese gov't massively subsidizes its economy and is more concerned with preventing unemployment than being efficient. Some might say: "well our gov't is too involved in the economy too." But let us keep things in perspective. China, for example, is literally building entire cities that are empty, no one in China can afford to live in them. They are building them for no other reason than to keep growth numbers up and keep employment up. This cannot go on forever.

2. On the military front he says China and the U.S. cannot have a major conflict because China is simply too big for the U.S. to touch it on land, and China is far too weak at sea to challenge the U.S. China just finished its first aircraft carrier, which is not as good as our aircraft carriers. This is one ship and everyone is in a tizzy about it, but one ship does not a navy make. You need carrier battle groups, not to mention nuclear submarines, and pilots and sailors and more importantly officers trained in modern naval tactics and strategy, if you are going to take on the U.S. at sea. China will not build such an organization over-night, if ever.

The U.S. has been fielding carrier battle groups for 80 years, by contrast. We know the game.

It used to be everyone was scared of Japan.  Than 1990 happened and Japan has really never recovered to its pre-bust growth. 

Why?  Simple.  When you are growing from the base of a post-feudal society, there is lots of room to grow.  Thus, the unprecedented boom of Japan and later China.  But, after you have grown to a certain point, naturally the growth must slow.

The 17th Century ~ The halfway point between the Middle Ages and Modernity
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