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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Time to bring back Brilliant Pebbles (Read 538 times)
patrick2
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Time to bring back Brilliant Pebbles
Apr 16th, 2017 at 11:08am
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The main research effort the US has for defense against ICBMs and IRBMs launched by rogue states like north korea and iran is nowadays called GMD, or Ground-Based Midcourse Defense.  Its not designed as a defense against a massive nuclear attack by Russia or china, but for a few missiles.  The US has been working on this for decades, and even with the limited objective, it's been a failure.  The classic metaphor for the task is to hit a bullet with a bullet.  By contrast, Brilliant Pebbles, part of the SDI effort launched by Reagan in the 1980s, was designed to attack ICBMs in the boost phase, when they were slow, big, and hot, as opposed to midcourse when they are fast, small, and cold.  The "big and slow" has to do with the ease of detecting and tracking them as opposed to when they are "small and fast", and the "hot" vs "cold" to do with detection and tracking by IR sensors.

North korea's latest launch failed, but they've nonetheless made great progress on both those and their nukes from when they started.  Not many years will pass before they have some intercontinental capability, and eventually other small states.  If anyone fires an ICBM which detonates as an EMP over the US, it could damn near end civilization.  The US has got to get something going.  This is another one of these super big problems that nothing effective is being done about while we spin our wheels with partisan bickering over relatively small issues.
  
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Limey
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Re: Time to bring back Brilliant Pebbles
Reply #1 - Apr 17th, 2017 at 5:06am
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I have to say, I was very sceptical about NK  getting these two technologies.  They are a small, weak state.

Nuclear weaponry took an enormous Allied effort.  I realise that much of the science has in effect been done for them but even so it must have been a remarkable achievement to get as far as they did.

Similarly with icbm tech, that stuff ain't easy.

Having got this far demenstraes their determination to get all the way.

I agree with you.

Presumably a system like you refer to must be placed near the launcher not the target?

That would mean, what, SK? Japan?  Naval asset? Standing air patrol? Subsea,  with sensors?
  

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forgotten centrist
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Re: Time to bring back Brilliant Pebbles
Reply #2 - Apr 17th, 2017 at 9:25am
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I wouldn't be too worried about NK missiles.  There are far easier ways to get a bomb over to the US.  I imagine a Liberian-flagged freighter could light up in a harbor somewhere and cause a hell of a mess.  This ICBM thing is just the Kim method of agitating until he gets concessions.

And the only reason NK is as far along as it is with nuclear weapons is because they are a useful cat's paw for China.  Everything of any real value going to NK comes through China.  And China likes having a puppet-state ready to fight proxy battles with the US.  They are dancing near the edge, but I imagine they have penetrated the NK security state deeply enough that any real attempt to start WW III would be quickly put down in a tidy coup.
  

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Re: Time to bring back Brilliant Pebbles
Reply #3 - Apr 17th, 2017 at 9:28am
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forgotten centrist wrote on Apr 17th, 2017 at 9:25am:
I wouldn't be too worried about NK missiles.  There are far easier ways to get a bomb over to the US.  I imagine a Liberian-flagged freighter could light up in a harbor somewhere and cause a hell of a mess.  This ICBM thing is just the Kim method of agitating until he gets concessions.

And the only reason NK is as far along as it is with nuclear weapons is because they are a useful cat's paw for China.  Everything of any real value going to NK comes through China.  And China likes having a puppet-state ready to fight proxy battles with the US.  They are dancing near the edge, but I imagine they have penetrated the NK security state deeply enough that any real attempt to start WW III would be quickly put down in a tidy coup.


I think that you're right, however I find your own, and ours, and Russian /Chinese, and especially Pakistani nukes worrying enough,  never mind NK's.
  

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The Original Wally
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Re: Time to bring back Brilliant Pebbles
Reply #4 - Apr 17th, 2017 at 9:41am
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patrick2 wrote on Apr 16th, 2017 at 11:08am:
The main research effort the US has for defense against ICBMs and IRBMs launched by rogue states like north korea and iran is nowadays called GMD, or Ground-Based Midcourse Defense.  Its not designed as a defense against a massive nuclear attack by Russia or china, but for a few missiles.  The US has been working on this for decades, and even with the limited objective, it's been a failure.  The classic metaphor for the task is to hit a bullet with a bullet.  By contrast, Brilliant Pebbles, part of the SDI effort launched by Reagan in the 1980s, was designed to attack ICBMs in the boost phase, when they were slow, big, and hot, as opposed to midcourse when they are fast, small, and cold.  The "big and slow" has to do with the ease of detecting and tracking them as opposed to when they are "small and fast", and the "hot" vs "cold" to do with detection and tracking by IR sensors.

North korea's latest launch failed, but they've nonetheless made great progress on both those and their nukes from when they started.  Not many years will pass before they have some intercontinental capability, and eventually other small states.  If anyone fires an ICBM which detonates as an EMP over the US, it could damn near end civilization.  The US has got to get something going.  This is another one of these super big problems that nothing effective is being done about while we spin our wheels with partisan bickering over relatively small issues.

I am sure we have many more capabilities which even WikiLeaks (exposed by Snowden and Manning and other Traitors) have no knowledge of. We may have even messed with the telemetry of the failed N. Korean missile launch and unlike Obama who would have bragged about WHAT HE'D DONE, President Trump plays his cards pretty close to his chest (to protect sources, methods and capabilities).

Trump has also directed NASA to focus on Space rather than Climate Change. We all know that much of our future weapons technology comes as spin offs from our Space Program, as does Russia and China. (anyone old enough to remember "sputnick" and the space race?
  

" The few will always act like the few.

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Limey
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Re: Time to bring back Brilliant Pebbles
Reply #5 - Apr 17th, 2017 at 11:39am
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The Original Wally wrote on Apr 17th, 2017 at 9:41am:
I am sure we have many more capabilities which even WikiLeaks (exposed by Snowden and Manning and other Traitors) have no knowledge of. We may have even messed with the telemetry of the failed N. Korean missile launch and unlike Obama who would have bragged about WHAT HE'D DONE, President Trump plays his cards pretty close to his chest (to protect sources, methods and capabilities).

Trump has also directed NASA to focus on Space rather than Climate Change. We all know that much of our future weapons technology comes as spin offs from our Space Program, as does Russia and China. (anyone old enough to remember "sputnick" and the space race?



Is there an 'absurdly partisan post of the year' award?

Early contender.
  

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The Original Wally
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Re: Time to bring back Brilliant Pebbles
Reply #6 - Apr 17th, 2017 at 11:51am
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Limey wrote on Apr 17th, 2017 at 11:39am:
Is there an 'absurdly partisan post of the year' award?

Early contender.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3342396/north-korea-missile-launch-failure-us-cybe...

I don't know where you are coming from with your comment, but there are suspicions that the failure of N. Korea's rocket launch was more than a mere coincidence and may have more to do with our military's capabilities.  There is ample evidence supporting Obama's style was to brag about "See what I did" exposing sources & methods and capabilities, while this Commander In Chief has made it quite clear that he will not telegraph any military information to our enemies!
  

" The few will always act like the few.

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Re: Time to bring back Brilliant Pebbles
Reply #7 - Apr 17th, 2017 at 12:04pm
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The Original Wally wrote on Apr 17th, 2017 at 11:51am:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3342396/north-korea-missile-launch-failure-us-cybe...

I don't know where you are coming from with your comment, but there are suspicions that the failure of N. Korea's rocket launch was more than a mere coincidence and may have more to do with our military's capabilities.  There is ample evidence supporting Obama's style was to brag about "See what I did" exposing sources & methods and capabilities, while this Commander In Chief has made it quite clear that he will not telegraph any military information to our enemies!



Where I was coming from is that speculation about the cause of the missile failure (hint: missile tests go wrong) is, er, speculation.

Claiming it as a success for Mr Trump, and also taking the opportunity to pop at Mr Obama, is silly partisan flagwaving on what Patrick had hoped would be a sensible thread.

By the way, the Sun is not a reputable news source, by any stretch of the imagination.
  

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The Original Wally
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Re: Time to bring back Brilliant Pebbles
Reply #8 - Apr 17th, 2017 at 12:14pm
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Limey wrote on Apr 17th, 2017 at 12:04pm:
Where I was coming from is that speculation about the cause of the missile failure (hint: missile tests go wrong) is, er, speculation.

Claiming it as a success for Mr Trump, and also taking the opportunity to pop at Mr Obama, is silly partisan flagwaving on what Patrick had hoped would be a sensible thread.

By the way, the Sun is not a reputable news source, by any stretch of the imagination.

I did say "may" and I given some of the capabilities of our military, I think that this is a fair characterization of what may have just been witnessed by the world.  I do understand that FatBoy 'may' just not have been able to keep it up without support of his Chinese handlers, so to speak!
  

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Re: Time to bring back Brilliant Pebbles
Reply #9 - Apr 17th, 2017 at 12:33pm
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The Original Wally wrote on Apr 17th, 2017 at 9:41am:
I am sure we have many more capabilities which even WikiLeaks (exposed by Snowden and Manning and other Traitors) have no knowledge of.

It's clear which side you are on...

And from the position of someone who values liberty and freedom, taking the side of the US state is to be a traitor.
  

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