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Hot Topic (More than 10 Replies) The Growing War with Syria? (Read 445 times)
forgotten centrist
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Re: The Growing War with Syria?
Reply #10 - Jun 19th, 2017 at 12:03pm
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Thanks for the thread.  Lots to read -- I'll post when I've had a chance to catch up.  Just wanted to offer appreciation!
  

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Re: The Growing War with Syria?
Reply #11 - Jun 19th, 2017 at 2:03pm
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Quote:
Chairman of Joint Chiefs Gen. Dunford says US shootdown of Syrian jet justified under [2001] AUMF b/c there to fight ISIS...

Source

If that's the justification, we could easily head into an undeclared, unauthorized conflict with Syria and/or Iran and/or Russia.

Here's some discussion of the legal issues involved:

On the Precipice: The U.S. and Russia in Syria
  
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Re: The Growing War with Syria?
Reply #12 - Jun 19th, 2017 at 5:22pm
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Mojo-Jojo wrote on Jun 17th, 2017 at 4:43pm:
My primary worry is that Trump has deferred so much to the military in terms of troop levels and ROE. If you're a military type, you view issues through a military lens. Historically, this means doubling down for the "win", using military means.
[...]


Demos wrote on Jun 19th, 2017 at 2:03pm:
Quote:
Chairman of Joint Chiefs Gen. Dunford says US shootdown of Syrian jet justified under [2001] AUMF b/c there to fight ISIS...

Source

If that's the justification, we could easily head into an undeclared, unauthorized conflict with Syria and/or Iran and/or Russia.

Here's some discussion of the legal issues involved:

On the Precipice: The U.S. and Russia in Syria

  

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Re: The Growing War with Syria?
Reply #13 - Jun 20th, 2017 at 4:45pm
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Another angle to this...

Quote:
The potential for conflict is not limited to concerns about Iran and the Assad regime’s role in eastern Syria. As BuzzFeed reported this past week, Turkey is also watching developments around Raqqa warily and considering intervening to address what it sees as undue Kurdish influence. “I can say that Turkey has its military operation options on table,” one Turkish policy expert told BuzzFeed. Ankara wants to prevent the formation of an independent Kurdish state, but its chance to act may have already closed. The largely Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces are pushing into Raqqa and face few threats in northeastern Syria; across the border in Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Government President Masoud Barzani is moving ahead with plans for a referendum on Kurdish independence from Iraq to be held on September 25.

Source
  
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Re: The Growing War with Syria?
Reply #14 - Jun 21st, 2017 at 9:44am
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Not to diminish what is a tense situation between the US and Russia atm. Because it is tense.

But I don't think it's going anywhere.  Bloviating and fretting from journalists and self interested parties be damned.  This is an issue of realpolitik.  Putin is not a moron no matter how much we like to dismiss him as one.  He's held power for nearly 20 years because he understands realpolitik. 

He is not going to sacrifice the potential for an abatement of anti Russian NATO aggression by starting an unnecessary war with the US in which they gain nothing and potentially lose everything.  Russia is not the Soviet Union.  The United States is still the United States.  This wouldn't be some mamby pamby terrorist whack a mole war.  This would be a traditional war.  And the US has a serious advantage on that playing field with Russia's 67 billion dollar defense budget.  Russia is completely surrounded by hostile forces that will jump in on the US's side.  Too many people are pretending it's still the 1960s.  It's not. 

(On the other hand, NATO's aggressive moves towards Russia for 20 years are what launched Putin into power ... maybe he wants it to keep up because that's how and why he stays in power in Russia... hmmm.  But at the same time ... Putin gains nothing from war with the entire west.  Which is what it would be.  I don't believe he's the irrational dictator type who would throw a nuke just to be a shit.)

Iran?  Please.  It doesn't even merit a mention.

I'm far more concerned about the potential for Otto Warmbier becoming an Archduke Franz Ferdinand figure and escalating a situation with China.  And THAT conflict/debacle snaring both the US and Russia into its web.

Queshank
  

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Re: The Growing War with Syria?
Reply #15 - Jun 21st, 2017 at 9:57am
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Queshank wrote on Jun 21st, 2017 at 9:44am:
Not to diminish what is a tense situation between the US and Russia atm. Because it is tense.

But I don't think it's going anywhere.  Bloviating and fretting from journalists and self interested parties be damned.  This is an issue of realpolitik.  Putin is not a moron no matter how much we like to dismiss him as one.  He's held power for nearly 20 years because he understands realpolitik. 

He is not going to sacrifice the potential for an abatement of anti Russian NATO aggression by starting an unnecessary war with the US in which they gain nothing and potentially lose everything.  Russia is not the Soviet Union.  The United States is still the United States.  This wouldn't be some mamby pamby terrorist whack a mole war.  This would be a traditional war.  And the US has a serious advantage on that playing field with Russia's 67 billion dollar defense budget.  Russia is completely surrounded by hostile forces that will jump in on the US's side.  Too many people are pretending it's still the 1960s.  It's not. 

(On the other hand, NATO's aggressive moves towards Russia for 20 years are what launched Putin into power ... maybe he wants it to keep up because that's how and why he stays in power in Russia... hmmm.  But at the same time ... Putin gains nothing from war with the entire west.  Which is what it would be.  I don't believe he's the irrational dictator type who would throw a nuke just to be a shit.)

Iran?  Please.  It doesn't even merit a mention.

I'm far more concerned about the potential for Otto Warmbier becoming an Archduke Franz Ferdinand figure and escalating a situation with China.  And THAT conflict/debacle snaring both the US and Russia into its web.

Queshank

Putin,Iran, N. Korea, China and a whole host of belligerent  international players, who's national interests are far different than our own, have taken advantage of America's having disengaged from a Leadership position, in the world.

All Presidents are tested when  they assume office.  They are trying to intimidate President Trump so they can go back to conducting their business as usual.  Their goals are the same shared by tyrants throughout history.  The wish to expand their territory and gain total control over the subjects they rule.

There is no doubt that President Trump's problems at home are encouraging our nation's enemies to be far more aggressive than they might be if our enemies saw he had the unwavering support of the American people.  A House divided can not stand and they are taking full advantage of the fierce political division in our nation !
  

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Re: The Growing War with Syria?
Reply #16 - Jun 21st, 2017 at 10:20am
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Demos wrote on Jun 7th, 2017 at 12:16pm:
While everyone is focused on the Russia investigation, we seem to be moving more deeply into war with Syria, for which there is no Congressional authorization.

Source

Source


What do we consider our commitment to be in Syria? What are we willing to do? How far are we willing to go? Are we going to "Americanize" the conflict, i.e., no longer just provide arms and training for rebel groups, and put us into direct conflict with Syria and Iranian backed forces?

Some important questions that no one in Congress seems to be asking (at least publicly); hopefully some in the administration (Mattis and McMaster) are.



Quote:
While everyone is focused on the Russia investigation,


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Re: The Growing War with Syria?
Reply #17 - Jun 21st, 2017 at 10:32am
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I just read this morning that the pace of US drone strikes has quadrupled under Trump.  And we have apparently deployed a long range artillery unit directly in Syria.  Special forces deployments are way up.  All without any stated policy goals, any concrete coordination with State, or any congressional oversight.

I don't think Trump has formed a coherent "policy" regarding these deployments, or this growing escalation in Syria, Afghanistan, etc.  Rather, there are many reports that he has delegated these decisions directly to the military.

Trump being Trump, this is emerging as his military M.O.  He doesn't really absorb his intel reports, doesn't have the patience to grok all the reports and potential risks, and has a long history of gambling with other people's investments.  If a given military strike succeeds, he wins.  If it fails, who cares?
  

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Re: The Growing War with Syria?
Reply #18 - Jun 21st, 2017 at 11:14am
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Criticize Russia all you want to if you're so inclined but they were invited into Syria, we were not. Syria is a sovereign nation, America has no right to set foot on that ground uninvited and has no right to overfly. Shooting that Syrian jet down was an act of war and a violation of international law. We were wrong.
  
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Re: The Growing War with Syria?
Reply #19 - Jun 21st, 2017 at 2:02pm
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forgotten centrist wrote on Jun 21st, 2017 at 10:32am:
I just read this morning that the pace of US drone strikes has quadrupled under Trump.  And we have apparently deployed a long range artillery unit directly in Syria.  Special forces deployments are way up.  All without any stated policy goals, any concrete coordination with State, or any congressional oversight.

I don't think Trump has formed a coherent "policy" regarding these deployments, or this growing escalation in Syria, Afghanistan, etc.  Rather, there are many reports that he has delegated these decisions directly to the military.

Trump being Trump, this is emerging as his military M.O.  He doesn't really absorb his intel reports, doesn't have the patience to grok all the reports and potential risks, and has a long history of gambling with other people's investments.  If a given military strike succeeds, he wins.  If it fails, who cares?


As much as I disagree with us being there at all I much prefer Mattis completely running the show.  Just let Trump sit in the corner and play with his cell phone.
  

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