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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) hurricane irma (Read 757 times)
Willy᾿s Wonka
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Re: hurricane irma
Reply #40 - Sep 9th, 2017 at 10:36am
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glen65 wrote on Sep 9th, 2017 at 10:25am:
Here he's clearly trying to use a major weather event, to refute claims by those on the other side of the climate change argument.


FC did not use a single weather event as you've now twice claimed and have been shown to be wrong.  In fact earlier I posted, with FC adding more detail, that Huston has seen 3 500 year floods in the past 3 years. 

This would all be clear to you if you understood what 'trend' means.


  

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Re: hurricane irma
Reply #41 - Sep 9th, 2017 at 10:55am
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Willy᾿s Wonka wrote on Sep 9th, 2017 at 10:36am:
FC did not use a single weather event as you've now twice claimed and have been shown to be wrong.  In fact earlier I posted, with FC adding more detail, that Huston has seen 3 500 year floods in the past 3 years. 

This would all be clear to you if you understood what 'trend' means.




Save it, he tries to make the same sort of case after each event. He did the same thing in another thread just over a week ago before irma was even an issue. You sneaky bastards are trying to avoid the rules just as the climate deniers are.
  
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Re: hurricane irma
Reply #42 - Sep 9th, 2017 at 11:00am
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glen65 wrote on Sep 9th, 2017 at 10:55am:
Save it, he tries to make the same sort of case after each event. He did the same thing in another thread just over a week ago before irma was even an issue. You sneaky bastards are trying to avoid the rules just as the climate deniers are.


Trends.  Learn about them.  It's the basis for what separates weather from climate.



  

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Re: hurricane irma
Reply #43 - Sep 9th, 2017 at 11:42am
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Willy᾿s Wonka wrote on Sep 9th, 2017 at 11:00am:
Trends.  Learn about them.  It's the basis for what separates weather from climate.





Yes professor, I already know about trends. It's a reason I haven't used weather events to ignore climate change to begin with. Climate consists of the long term averages of weather which can consist of decades of data. Trying to use these past 3 years doesn't cut it. But you'll do it anyway, counting the others to not know the difference.
  
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Willy᾿s Wonka
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Re: hurricane irma
Reply #44 - Sep 9th, 2017 at 1:36pm
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glen65 wrote on Sep 9th, 2017 at 11:42am:
Yes professor, I already know about trends. It's a reason I haven't used weather events to ignore climate change to begin with. Climate consists of the long term averages of weather which can consist of decades of data. Trying to use these past 3 years doesn't cut it. But you'll do it anyway, counting the others to not know the difference.


How many decades is enough?





Percent of Atlantic hurricanes each year from 1970 to 2012 that reached categories 3, 4, and 5. Annual data (light blue) and 5-year running average (dark blue).



Recent research in this area suggests that hurricanes in the North Atlantic region have been intensifying over the past 40 years [11].

Since the mid-1970s, the number of hurricanes that reach Categories 4 and 5 in strength—that is, the two strongest classifications—has roughly doubled [12].

Measures of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes (a measure of the power of a hurricane over its entire lifetime) also show a doubling during this time period. Indices for hurricane activity based on storm surge data from tide gauges further indicate an increase in intensity [13].

Hurricanes in the western North Pacific and the northern Indian oceans—known as typhoons and cyclones, respectively—are also intensifying, though the signal is not as strong as for the North Atlantic [14]. Whether hurricanes are intensifying in other regions is less clear, though other recent evidence suggests that the trend toward more intense hurricanes may extend globally [15].

There has been little change, however, in the frequency of hurricanes globally [16]. Roughly 90 hurricanes occur each year around the world, with by far the greatest number occurring in the largest ocean basin on Earth–the Pacific.

To further address the challenges of detecting long-term trends, scientists also study the core factors that intensify or weaken hurricanes, including the interplay between human-driven climate change and natural factors.
Union of Concerned Scientists





Deniers are the poster children for the Dunning–Kruger effect.


  

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Re: hurricane irma
Reply #45 - Sep 9th, 2017 at 2:22pm
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Willy᾿s Wonka wrote on Sep 9th, 2017 at 1:36pm:
How many decades is enough?




http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/images/2016/08/gw-...
Percent of Atlantic hurricanes each year from 1970 to 2012 that reached categories 3, 4, and 5. Annual data (light blue) and 5-year running average (dark blue).



Recent research in this area suggests that hurricanes in the North Atlantic region have been intensifying over the past 40 years [11].

Since the mid-1970s, the number of hurricanes that reach Categories 4 and 5 in strength—that is, the two strongest classifications—has roughly doubled [12].

Measures of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes (a measure of the power of a hurricane over its entire lifetime) also show a doubling during this time period. Indices for hurricane activity based on storm surge data from tide gauges further indicate an increase in intensity [13].

Hurricanes in the western North Pacific and the northern Indian oceans—known as typhoons and cyclones, respectively—are also intensifying, though the signal is not as strong as for the North Atlantic [14]. Whether hurricanes are intensifying in other regions is less clear, though other recent evidence suggests that the trend toward more intense hurricanes may extend globally [15].

There has been little change, however, in the frequency of hurricanes globally [16]. Roughly 90 hurricanes occur each year around the world, with by far the greatest number occurring in the largest ocean basin on Earth–the Pacific.

To further address the challenges of detecting long-term trends, scientists also study the core factors that intensify or weaken hurricanes, including the interplay between human-driven climate change and natural factors.
Union of Concerned Scientists





Deniers are the poster children for the Dunning–Kruger effect.




Misses a point, none of this changes the fact that earlier, you tried to use only 3 years to help make your case.

Willy᾿s Wonka wrote on Sep 9th, 2017 at 10:36am:
FC did not use a single weather event as you've now twice claimed and have been shown to be wrong.  In fact earlier I posted, with FC adding more detail, that Huston has seen 3 500 year floods in the past 3 years. 

This would all be clear to you if you understood what 'trend' means.



  
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Re: hurricane irma
Reply #46 - Sep 9th, 2017 at 2:53pm
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glen65 wrote on Sep 9th, 2017 at 2:22pm:
Misses a point, none of this changes the fact that earlier, you tried to use only 3 years to help make your case.




Of course.  Three 500 year floods in three years in the same area is significant. However it is simply dishonest to suggest it is the only evidence offered.

There are dozens of posts by those who have a basic understanding of human induced warming covering everything from declining glaciation, declining sea ice, rising ocean levels to rising temperatures and strengthening hurricanes each supported by decades of data.


It's unreasonable of you and shows a lack of interest in good faith discussion to demand each and every post cover all the disciplines supporting GW and the decades of data used to reach their conclusions.

  

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Re: hurricane irma
Reply #47 - Sep 9th, 2017 at 3:39pm
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The Original Wally wrote on Sep 6th, 2017 at 11:12am:
HAVE YOU HEARD ANY CREDIBLE SOURCE ACTUALLY SAY THIS STORM OR THE LAST ONE HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH GLOBAL WARMING?  IF SO, PLEASE PROVIDE A LINK.

(OR IS IT JUST MORE ALINSKY " NEVER ALLOW A GOOD CRISIS TO GO TO WASTE" POLITCAL HYPE OF A TRAGIC SITUATION?)


Never let a serious hurricane go to waste. 
  

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Re: hurricane irma
Reply #48 - Sep 9th, 2017 at 4:08pm
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Willy᾿s Wonka wrote on Sep 9th, 2017 at 2:53pm:
Of course.  Three 500 year floods in three years in the same area is significant. However it is simply dishonest to suggest it is the only evidence offered.

There are dozens of posts by those who have a basic understanding of human induced warming covering everything from declining glaciation, declining sea ice, rising ocean levels to rising temperatures and strengthening hurricanes each supported by decades of data.

It's unreasonable of you and shows a lack of interest in good faith discussion to demand each and every post cover all the disciplines supporting GW and the decades of data used to reach their conclusions.



The dishonesty is on your part. I seen what you posted on here, and none of it changes the fact that you used a 3 year time frame to help make your case. Yet you were preaching to me earlier about trends. Ever time a new hurricane hits, you can count on someone either here or abroad, using it to make a case concerning their side of the climate argument. When someone does that it's basically doing the same thing as climate deniers try to do, when they use something relating to cold or dropping temps, throughout a relatively short period of time to dismiss climate change. People who attempt to make their case in such fashion, (both believers and non believers in climate change) are wrong. 
  
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