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Hot Topic (More than 10 Replies) The Statistical Improbability of Spontaneous Biochemical Intelligence (Read 357 times)
Limey
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Re: The Statistical Improbability of Spontaneous Biochemical Intelligence
Reply #10 - Nov 3rd, 2017 at 6:19pm
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BowHunter wrote on Nov 2nd, 2017 at 4:47pm:
If they're anything like us, they'll be looking for us and as I said if they can get here, it's very likely that their means of detection will be beyond anything we can imagine, just as their means of transportation will be.



We started making ourselves findable over a century ago by senfing out modulated radio signals.

Nothing we are doing to search for aliens is active, except for a few probes within our solar system and one (Voyager?) that just left.


The chances of anyone spotting that are pretty slim, but made a plot device in a Star Trek film.


The methods we’re using to search won’t, in sll likelihood, find anything but electromagnetic fossils.

We’re searching for radio spectrum communications, on the assumption that technological civilizations will use it.


Due to light speed, therefore, we will if we find anything, find things from a long time ago.

Unless any of the closer stars have societies.


So, say we notice  a civilisation that’s 500 light years away.  We have no way of communicating. There’s a 1000 year wait between ‘hi Jabba! This is Earth! Smileyface handwave!’ and ‘Yo! Hi Earth! Smileyface tentacle wave’
« Last Edit: Nov 3rd, 2017 at 6:25pm by Limey »  

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Re: The Statistical Improbability of Spontaneous Biochemical Intelligence
Reply #11 - Nov 3rd, 2017 at 8:30pm
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Limey wrote on Nov 3rd, 2017 at 6:19pm:
We started making ourselves findable over a century ago by senfing out modulated radio signals.

Nothing we are doing to search for aliens is active, except for a few probes within our solar system and one (Voyager?) that just left.


The chances of anyone spotting that are pretty slim, but made a plot device in a Star Trek film.


The methods we’re using to search won’t, in sll likelihood, find anything but electromagnetic fossils.

We’re searching for radio spectrum communications, on the assumption that technological civilizations will use it.


Due to light speed, therefore, we will if we find anything, find things from a long time ago.

Unless any of the closer stars have societies.


So, say we notice  a civilisation that’s 500 light years away.  We have no way of communicating. There’s a 1000 year wait between ‘hi Jabba! This is Earth! Smileyface handwave!’ and ‘Yo! Hi Earth! Smileyface tentacle wave’


I hope Mr. Hawking sees this.  It's made me feel better.  It probaby would make him feel better, too.
  

non sumus stulti
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Re: The Statistical Improbability of Spontaneous Biochemical Intelligence
Reply #12 - Nov 3rd, 2017 at 9:05pm
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I rather suspect that Mr. Hawking, or “Stevie Boy” as l like to call him, has considered such details and was being selectively quoted.
  

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Re: The Statistical Improbability of Spontaneous Biochemical Intelligence
Reply #13 - Nov 4th, 2017 at 2:21am
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Cranberry Sass wrote on Nov 2nd, 2017 at 2:56pm:
https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/the_search.png






Sounds like you're speaking of Fermi’s Paradox.  Fermi suggested that with the likelihood of civilizations arising we should have seen evidence.

But first ...  the Drake equation..  a means of calculating the number of advanced civilizations.

http://www.seti.org/sites/default/files/drake-equation-540px.gif

The answer could be anywhere from 1,000 to as high as 100,000,000 depending on the variables of course.  But certainly the answer is not zero.

Fermi may not have considered the problems separating signals modulated with information from background noise.  Earth has a "Radio Bubble" extending only about 110 light years from Earth.  The number of star systems in that bubble is relatively low.  Of course they'd have to be in the bubble to detect us .. they'd have to be looking for a signal in the right frequency AND they'd have to be able to extract that signal from background noise. 

Then there's the inverse square law where we see that as our radio bubble expands the effective radiated power of the field is inversely proportional to the square of the distance from Earth.  The further from Earth the weaker the signal and more difficult to extract from the background.

If an alien civilization on a planet 10,000 light years away started radio broadcasts 8,000 years ago, we wouldn't 'see' the signal for another 2,000 years.  Say that only used that technology for 500 years.  We'd have a small window of opportunity in which to look in the right direction for a very small weak signal.

If an alien civilization on a planet 1,000 light years away started radio broadcasts 2,000 years ago and only used that technology for 500 years.. we'd have missed the signal as it passed Earth 500 years ago.

Our Milky Way galaxy is 100,000 light years in diameter.  Seems we need to keep up the search a bit longer.

Another possibility is that 'broadcast' via electromagnetic means lasts only a short period of time for a given technologically advanced civilization.   Much of our communications now is by Internet .. copper and fiber optics therefore much less broadcast.

Then there's the recent experiments in Quantum Entanglement.  Where entangled photons theoretically anywhere in the universe react identically and instantaneously to stimuli.  China is leading the way.  An alien communication system using Quantum Entanglement would be undetectable. 


Last.. It's possible that intelligent life invariably leads to self-destruction.  We simply  missed'um.




Nice!

I'll concede defeat, except for one issue. We've not explored enough of our known universe to even determine if it's infinite or not.  The technology will catch up and thespeed at which the information is gathered and analyzed will be exponential.
  

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Re: The Statistical Improbability of Spontaneous Biochemical Intelligence
Reply #14 - Nov 7th, 2017 at 8:35am
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Limey wrote on Nov 3rd, 2017 at 6:19pm:
We started making ourselves findable over a century ago by senfing out modulated radio signals.

Nothing we are doing to search for aliens is active, except for a few probes within our solar system and one (Voyager?) that just left.


The chances of anyone spotting that are pretty slim, but made a plot device in a Star Trek film.


The methods we’re using to search won’t, in sll likelihood, find anything but electromagnetic fossils.

We’re searching for radio spectrum communications, on the assumption that technological civilizations will use it.


Due to light speed, therefore, we will if we find anything, find things from a long time ago.

Unless any of the closer stars have societies.


So, say we notice  a civilisation that’s 500 light years away.  We have no way of communicating. There’s a 1000 year wait between ‘hi Jabba! This is Earth! Smileyface handwave!’ and ‘Yo! Hi Earth! Smileyface tentacle wave’


Grin Grin Grin Grin

The imagery this conjures is just delicious!
  

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Re: The Statistical Improbability of Spontaneous Biochemical Intelligence
Reply #15 - Nov 7th, 2017 at 7:51pm
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Capt. Lola B.S.C. wrote on Nov 1st, 2017 at 3:25pm:
For 54 years, SETI has been searching for other intelligent  life in the universe and as of yet, zilch, zip, nada. Let's dispassionately explore the possibilities as to why that is.


Some possibilities:

1. We're the only intelligent life in the universe.
2. We're the only intelligent life nearby.
3. We haven't been looking long enough.
4. We're looking for the wrong thing.
5. Aliens know about us but cannot communicate with us.
6. Aliens know about us but don't want to communicate with us, for whatever reason.
  

"If cousins, I would much prefer to marry one my Neanderthal relatives than a screeching chimpanzee which might bite my face off as has happened recently. Of course, chimps are not even a human species so procreation between humans and chimps is out of the question." - joe_christian, on sex
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Re: The Statistical Improbability of Spontaneous Biochemical Intelligence
Reply #16 - Nov 7th, 2017 at 11:00pm
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Running Deer wrote on Nov 7th, 2017 at 7:51pm:
Some possibilities:

1. We're the only intelligent life in the universe.
2. We're the only intelligent life nearby.
3. We haven't been looking long enough.
4. We're looking for the wrong thing.
5. Aliens know about us but cannot communicate with us.
6. Aliens know about us but don't want to communicate with us, for whatever reason.


I believe the watchmaker argument and the improbability of life spontaneously happening is so low that the possibility that we are alone and that our universe is created seems to outweigh the strong atheist position of oblivion.

I'll also concede that the idea of a god as conceived of by a bunch of illiterate knuckle draggers in some obscure part of the desert is beyond absurd.

Hell, it's even more likely that we are all experiencing a simulated reality than being the product of some iron age war god.  Math is just the source code for whoever programmed it.

I'm basically still on the cool kids team, just fun to doubt it all.   Cool
  

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Re: The Statistical Improbability of Spontaneous Biochemical Intelligence
Reply #17 - Nov 8th, 2017 at 12:03am
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Limey wrote on Nov 3rd, 2017 at 6:19pm:
We started making ourselves findable over a century ago by senfing out modulated radio signals.

Nothing we are doing to search for aliens is active, except for a few probes within our solar system and one (Voyager?) that just left.


The chances of anyone spotting that are pretty slim, but made a plot device in a Star Trek film.


The methods we’re using to search won’t, in sll likelihood, find anything but electromagnetic fossils.

We’re searching for radio spectrum communications, on the assumption that technological civilizations will use it.


Due to light speed, therefore, we will if we find anything, find things from a long time ago.

Unless any of the closer stars have societies.


So, say we notice  a civilisation that’s 500 light years away.  We have no way of communicating. There’s a 1000 year wait between ‘hi Jabba! This is Earth! Smileyface handwave!’ and ‘Yo! Hi Earth! Smileyface tentacle wave’



This is unrelated to my post, the one you quoted.
  

Non sequitur:

The Wet Dreams of Mr Cousteau wrote on Mar 2nd, 2017 at 4:30am:
... that has less power than a hair dryer used by a eunuch.



Rabbit_Reborn wrote on Feb 5th, 2017 at 5:40pm:
...that makes me a moron.
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Re: The Statistical Improbability of Spontaneous Biochemical Intelligence
Reply #18 - Nov 10th, 2017 at 9:03pm
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Cranberry Sass wrote on Nov 2nd, 2017 at 2:56pm:
https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/the_search.png






Sounds like you're speaking of Fermi’s Paradox.  Fermi suggested that with the likelihood of civilizations arising we should have seen evidence.

But first ...  the Drake equation..  a means of calculating the number of advanced civilizations.

http://www.seti.org/sites/default/files/drake-equation-540px.gif

The answer could be anywhere from 1,000 to as high as 100,000,000 depending on the variables of course.  But certainly the answer is not zero.

Fermi may not have considered the problems separating signals modulated with information from background noise.  Earth has a "Radio Bubble" extending only about 110 light years from Earth.  The number of star systems in that bubble is relatively low.  Of course they'd have to be in the bubble to detect us .. they'd have to be looking for a signal in the right frequency AND they'd have to be able to extract that signal from background noise. 

Then there's the inverse square law where we see that as our radio bubble expands the effective radiated power of the field is inversely proportional to the square of the distance from Earth.  The further from Earth the weaker the signal and more difficult to extract from the background.

If an alien civilization on a planet 10,000 light years away started radio broadcasts 8,000 years ago, we wouldn't 'see' the signal for another 2,000 years.  Say that only used that technology for 500 years.  We'd have a small window of opportunity in which to look in the right direction for a very small weak signal.

If an alien civilization on a planet 1,000 light years away started radio broadcasts 2,000 years ago and only used that technology for 500 years.. we'd have missed the signal as it passed Earth 500 years ago.

Our Milky Way galaxy is 100,000 light years in diameter.  Seems we need to keep up the search a bit longer.

Another possibility is that 'broadcast' via electromagnetic means lasts only a short period of time for a given technologically advanced civilization.   Much of our communications now is by Internet .. copper and fiber optics therefore much less broadcast.

Then there's the recent experiments in Quantum Entanglement.  Where entangled photons theoretically anywhere in the universe react identically and instantaneously to stimuli.  China is leading the way.  An alien communication system using Quantum Entanglement would be undetectable. 


Last.. It's possible that intelligent life invariably leads to self-destruction.  We simply  missed'um.





My post was but a pale imitation of this which somehow I missed.

One additional point though.

As we move from broadcasting to hardwired and limited broadcast, we are aware of the intergalactic - or at least intragalactic - possibilities and we will, I hope, continue sending signals specifically for possible aliens* to find.

Presumably our opposite numbers on Planet Zog will be doing the same.


* fingers crossed for nice aliens not Mars Attacks or Alien.
  

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Re: The Statistical Improbability of Spontaneous Biochemical Intelligence
Reply #19 - Nov 11th, 2017 at 11:20am
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Limey wrote on Nov 10th, 2017 at 9:03pm:
My post was but a pale imitation of this which somehow I missed.

One additional point though.

As we move from broadcasting to hardwired and limited broadcast, we are aware of the intergalactic - or at least intragalactic - possibilities and we will, I hope, continue sending signals specifically for possible aliens* to find.

Presumably our opposite numbers on Planet Zog will be doing the same.


* fingers crossed for nice aliens not Mars Attacks or Alien.


My fingers, too.  Stevie boy is pretty sure we shouldn't be looking.
  

non sumus stulti
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