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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency. (Read 757 times)
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #30 - Mar 11th, 2018 at 6:10pm
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TowardLiberty wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 5:37pm:
I have a different read on it. Perhaps some have been predicting gloom and doom but many others, myself included, have said that we are going to blow a massive bubble in the economy. The theory states that this bubble comes undone when interest rates increase.

The housing bubble in 07 was popped at 5%. Before that the dot com bubble was popped at 6%. Anyone calling for a meltdown at ZIRP levels is premature according to the theory of the business cycle I am familiar with.

So far reality has matched theory pretty well.


I think the biggest concern with interest rates is what it's going to do to our annual debt servicing.  At 4% we're pushing our 200 billion dollar current interest payments to rivaling defense expenditures.

I don't see how this is sustainable.  MMT be damned. 

But I also don't think comparing anything in our economy to the dot com bubble is a valid comparison.  I was an IT guy in the late 90s predicting the dot com bubble bursting simply because even at the ground level running a repair shop and software store I was astonished people thought the amounts of money people were paying for a neverending supply of real estate was stupid and shortsighted.

The creation of an entire new and never ending real estate market called "cyberspace" is unlike anything else in history and is meaningless when included in predictions for more concrete and time tested industries like ... well ... steel manufacturing. 

Quote:
Sure. People feel good during a bull market. Why wouldn't they?

If the economic cycle is turning then that sentiment can reverse very quickly.


But you're dismissing something I think is important.

Small businesses make up the lion's share of employment in the United States.  Sure there's some disagreement in there about what makes up a "small business."  But those small businesses looking to expand and hire, as the links I shared from CNBC and CNN seem to indicate ... spells good things for the economy.

The bull market isn't really relevant when we're talking specifically about (as the CNBC article states) employers who employ between 5 and 9 employees.  These are not publicly traded companies.  Or as this article gets into ... small businesses have been responsible for creating 2 out of every 3 jobs in this country for the past 20 years.

And I'm sure you'd agree one of the problems and concerns about sustainability in our economy is the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.   For years the concerns have been Wall Street is experiencing a boom that isn't being reflected on Main Street.  "It's just a casino where people go to make some quick cash!"

We might be looking at a situation where the opposite is becoming a reality. 

Are the unsustainability concerns still valid?  Does the economy grow from the top down or the ground up?

Quote:
No doubt that is all true what concerns me is the fact that some seem to want to portray tariffs as an unambiguous good rather than a short term cost for bringing others to the table. The fact that it is a cost ought to be recognized.


Oh for sure.  They aren't an unambiguous good.  But I think the inverse isn't necessarily true either ... that zero tariffs regardless what practices foreign countries engage in is an unambiguous good.

It's not necessarily a given that what is good for the top earners in this country with their ability to profit from directly from overseas investment is necessarily what is good for the rest of the country.  I think the past 20 years have demonstrated that to some degree.  That's great a person working part time can afford an iPhone by making payments to Verizon.  Is it really that important?

And I don't think we need to preserve "protectionist" managed trade agreements hashed out over the past decades to benefit those major donors to political candidates that aren't necessarily in the best interests of the average American worker.

There is more to it than just "tariffs bad, mkay."  We're not talking about a free market here where there was no protectionism and we're introducing protectionism.  We're simply talking about swapping one form for another. 

It's one of the things I think gets overlooked in all these tariff discussions popping up on the boards.

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Oh I have no idea. It very well could go that long or even longer. That said I would put my money on a financial crisis happening before then.


I honestly thought it would happen by now.

But we need to be clear on what we're talking about.  And if Wall Street no longer acts as a barometer for Main Street as even I think you and I have agreed in the past ... I'm not sure Wall Street experiencing a drop means as much as it did in 1929.

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #31 - Mar 11th, 2018 at 6:10pm
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Phillip 2.0 wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 5:44pm:
Instead of all these words, you could have just posted sources...


Phillip the sources I used are doing the math myself.  I used "all these words" to tell you exactly that. 

So this is an odd response.  There is no source.  Nobody is paying attention to shit like this besides nutjobs like me.

Try it yourself.

Prove me wrong.

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #32 - Mar 11th, 2018 at 6:38pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 2:35pm:
There's a lot of ground to cover Wads.  You gotta catch up.

We've been specifically talking about one thing. 

Texas going for a Democratic president. 

You suggested we never envisioned a black president in 2006 either and somehow imagine that's just like imagining a Democrat winning Texas in 2020. 

I pointed out that's not true ... Obama was given the keynote speech in 2004 and had wildly favorable reviews.  It's what led to him throwing his hat into the ring with a funny foreign sounding name and very little experience.  Obviously people were seeing a "possibility."

Your entire theory suggesting a Democrat might win Texas is flawed.

As for myself, I never doubted the power a TV star with the financial clout of Trump could bring to the elections.  You maybe were misled and distracted by late night comedy having a field day with the ridiculousness of it.   That's fine.  A lot of people were.  Nobody remembers Ronald Reagan was a movie star I guess.  (Yes, yes I know he was governor of California too.  How'd he get there?)

I'm not all over the place Wads.  I'm educating you on a perspective you haven't been paying attention to.  This is what education looks like.  You're welcome.  Ya gotta keep up buddy.  I don't do classes for the short bus.

Queshank

What I am saying is that just as many never imagined a black president in 2006, you can't imagine a democrat winning in Texas in 2018 or 2020.  Both are/were unimaginable.  Just because he gave an excellent speech is not a prerequisite for winning the presidency.  He was not the 1st black to run for president.  As a manner of fact, he was the 4th.  You never know what is going to happen.  The democrats learned an important lesson in 2016.  I would suggest that you learn that lesson as well.
  

Jasmine wrote on May 6th, 2018 at 7:43pm:
Yes, I heard about this. Just goes to show McLame’s true loyalties. Hopefully, Trump won’t go to his funeral very, very soon.


TowardLiberty wrote on Mar 29th, 2018 at 8:34pm:
I'll try but it might be beyond my ability. Insulting is "like 90% of what I do here."
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #33 - Mar 11th, 2018 at 6:39pm
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TL that last response was just a longwinded way for me to say ....

Nobody has a clue what is going to happen.  We're in uncharted territory.  There are so many factors and variables at play that nobody ... and I mean that with a capital N NOBODY has any idea what's going to happen and those making predictions are just throwing a dart and hoping either they hit the target or eventually the target moves to where their dart landed.

It sounds like I'm making predictions.  I'm not.  I have zero idea what's going to happen or how in tune the overall symphony is going to be.  I'm just highlighting the promising notes.

I'm more just sharing my own skepticism that there is anybody immune from bias making these predictions.

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #34 - Mar 11th, 2018 at 6:45pm
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Wadsworth wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 6:38pm:
What I am saying is that just as many never imagined a black president in 2006, you can't imagine a democrat winning in Texas in 2018 or 2020.  Both are/were unimaginable.  Just because he gave an excellent speech is not a prerequisite for winning the presidency.  He was not the 1st black to run for president.  As a manner of fact, he was the 4th.  You never know what is going to happen.  The democrats learned an important lesson in 2016.  I would suggest that you learn that lesson as well.


And what I'm saying is that Barack Obama and a black president was NOT unimaginable in 2006.  Barack Obama's keynote speech in 2004 electrified rank and file Democrats.

To simply say 3 other candidates were black ignores the fact that they were niche candidates like Alan Keyes, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton.

(There were more than 3 other candidates btw.)

But there were indicators both that Barack Obama had a real shot at winning, and that Donald Trump had a real shot at winning.  People ignoring those indicators doesn't mean they didn't exist. 

RE: Obama .. his electrifying keynote address and much ballyhoo'd "Charisma" in 2004 that people talked about for weeks afterwards speculating about him running for president ... and

RE: Trump ... Ronald Reagan's acting career launching him into a career in politics.

Tell me what the indicators are that a Democrat is going to win Texas?  It's what I asked in my OP. 

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #35 - Mar 11th, 2018 at 7:16pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 6:45pm:
And what I'm saying is that Barack Obama and a black president was NOT unimaginable in 2006.  Barack Obama's keynote speech in 2004 electrified rank and file Democrats.

To simply say 3 other candidates were black ignores the fact that they were niche candidates like Alan Keyes, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton.

(There were more than 3 other candidates btw.)

But there were indicators both that Barack Obama had a real shot at winning, and that Donald Trump had a real shot at winning.  People ignoring those indicators doesn't mean they didn't exist. 

RE: Obama .. his electrifying keynote address and much ballyhoo'd "Charisma" in 2004 that people talked about for weeks afterwards speculating about him running for president ... and

RE: Trump ... Ronald Reagan's acting career launching him into a career in politics.

Tell me what the indicators are that a Democrat is going to win Texas?  It's what I asked in my OP. 

Queshank

So you are say that Trump's low approval ratings give him a real shot at winning?  That does not make sense to me.
  

Jasmine wrote on May 6th, 2018 at 7:43pm:
Yes, I heard about this. Just goes to show McLame’s true loyalties. Hopefully, Trump won’t go to his funeral very, very soon.


TowardLiberty wrote on Mar 29th, 2018 at 8:34pm:
I'll try but it might be beyond my ability. Insulting is "like 90% of what I do here."
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #36 - Mar 11th, 2018 at 8:21pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 6:10pm:
Phillip the sources I used are doing the math myself.  I used "all these words" to tell you exactly that. 

So this is an odd response.  There is no source.  Nobody is paying attention to shit like this besides nutjobs like me.

Try it yourself.

Prove me wrong.

Queshank



Prove you wrong? You essentially did that by admitting there was no source...
  
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #37 - Mar 11th, 2018 at 8:30pm
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after 2 terms of obama & with Hillary the heir apparent it was obvious that parts of the country were ripe low hanging fruit for someone like DJT


  
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #38 - Mar 11th, 2018 at 8:32pm
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Wadsworth wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 7:16pm:
So you are say that Trump's low approval ratings give him a real shot at winning?  That does not make sense to me.


No.

I am trying to remind you guys that Trump was exceedingly unpopular on the day he was elected president.

And the areas of the country where Trump is in fact more popular than he was nationally on the day he was elected give him 272 votes.  Enough to win the presidency. 

And that doesn't even include Texas where he clocks in at 39%.  38 electoral votes that are likely to go his way. 

You are right Wadsworth.  There's a chance they won't.  Trump has pissed off oil companies with these tariffs and he only won Texas by 9 points in 2016.  Some Democratic candidate we can't imagine today may step up in 2020 and take Texas.  Color me skeptical because that candidate isn't in existence today and we're not terribly far from election season.

But even if you're right ... that's what I was factoring into the initial post.  That still leaves us 272 votes in other areas of the country to contend with.  In areas of the country Trump has been actively courting for the past year.  The Democrats ignored his courting them in the 2016 election, and they're ignoring him courting them now.

Can you see anywhere where the Democrats have reached out to these voters? 

I cannot. 

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #39 - Mar 11th, 2018 at 8:36pm
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Phillip 2.0 wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 8:21pm:
Prove you wrong? You essentially did that by admitting there was no source...


How ... juvenile.

The source is math Phillip.  Please.  Don't take this direction.  I'm having enough trouble respecting the intellectual capabilities of leftists as it is.

You're not a beginner.  This ain't your first rodeo.  Do the math on the electoral college.  Check my work.  Check my math. 

Or if like a typical leftist you're too lazy, just drop the pretense that you're seriously going to argue with the idea that Trump is unpopular and was unpopular the day he was elected.

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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