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Liberty News ForumLNF Forums HerePolitical Opinion Page - The Hot Seat › Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency. (Read 754 times)
Luther
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #40 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 6:56am
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Mojo-Jojo wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 1:13pm:
Meh, I'm not too worried.

Just a few states that were quite close last time and Trump loses in 2020. As long as we don't run Hillary, I think Trump's a one-term wonder.



I think you are right Wink
  

All throughout our American history, world history, "ordinary people can do extraordinary things"


un·known quan·ti·ty
noun
a person or thing whose nature, value, or significance cannot be determined or is not yet known.
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #41 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 7:05am
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Luther wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 8:18am:
The way you word this is like a fighter in the ring with no opponent or fighting himself? Roll Eyes

A democrat doesn't need Texas in order to win Roll Eyes

You also seem to forget that Hillary's numbers were about the same as Trumps during the election?

You also forget that Trump only won Florida, Wis, Penn and Mich by small town margins


You don't have cabin fever or something do ya? Grin



Cat got your tongue? Grin
  

All throughout our American history, world history, "ordinary people can do extraordinary things"


un·known quan·ti·ty
noun
a person or thing whose nature, value, or significance cannot be determined or is not yet known.
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Queshank
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #42 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 11:11am
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Luther wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 7:05am:
Cat got your tongue? Grin


Queshank wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 2:35pm:
  Ya gotta keep up buddy.  I don't do classes for the short bus.


Queshank wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 1:28pm:
No.  A Democrat doesn't need Texas to win.  But chock Texas in there with the rest of those states and now we're at 310 electoral votes for Trump.  You completely missed the point on that one Luther.


Not at the start.  You seem to forget that for 20 years prior to the 2016 election Hillary Clinton was voted most admired woman in America.  20 years straight.  Her approval rating when she stepped down as Sec of State was in the mid to high 60s. 

Then she got into a presidential campaign with Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.


And what have the Democrats been doing to court those voters besides call them stupid racists? 



Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
I am not aware of any article
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #43 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 6:29pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 8:32pm:
No.

I am trying to remind you guys that Trump was exceedingly unpopular on the day he was elected president.

And the areas of the country where Trump is in fact more popular than he was nationally on the day he was elected give him 272 votes.  Enough to win the presidency. 

And that doesn't even include Texas where he clocks in at 39%.  38 electoral votes that are likely to go his way. 

You are right Wadsworth.  There's a chance they won't.  Trump has pissed off oil companies with these tariffs and he only won Texas by 9 points in 2016.  Some Democratic candidate we can't imagine today may step up in 2020 and take Texas.  Color me skeptical because that candidate isn't in existence today and we're not terribly far from election season.

But even if you're right ... that's what I was factoring into the initial post.  That still leaves us 272 votes in other areas of the country to contend with.  In areas of the country Trump has been actively courting for the past year.  The Democrats ignored his courting them in the 2016 election, and they're ignoring him courting them now.

Can you see anywhere where the Democrats have reached out to these voters? 

I cannot. 

Queshank


I have said several times that the American Left, at least the public American Left suffers from a terminal case of smugness.

I think that very much plays into what you are describing.
  



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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #44 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 6:43pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 6:10pm:
I think the biggest concern with interest rates is what it's going to do to our annual debt servicing.  At 4% we're pushing our 200 billion dollar current interest payments to rivaling defense expenditures.

I don't see how this is sustainable.  MMT be damned. 


I would agree with you. But I don't think that's the only big concern with interest rates. For just as the national debt is not sustainable at higher interest rates, so are the plans of many firms and businesses unsustainable at higher interest rates.

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But I also don't think comparing anything in our economy to the dot com bubble is a valid comparison.  I was an IT guy in the late 90s predicting the dot com bubble bursting simply because even at the ground level running a repair shop and software store I was astonished people thought the amounts of money people were paying for a neverending supply of real estate was stupid and shortsighted.

The creation of an entire new and never ending real estate market called "cyberspace" is unlike anything else in history and is meaningless when included in predictions for more concrete and time tested industries like ... well ... steel manufacturing. 


No doubt the specifics of the dot com bubble are unique to its time and place. You could say the same about the housing bubble. And the same is true of the savings and loan crisis. Every boom and bust has its unique features. But they also have typical features as well. And one of them surrounds the broad relationship that credit and interest plays in both expanding and contracting economic activity.

Quote:
But you're dismissing something I think is important.

Small businesses make up the lion's share of employment in the United States.  Sure there's some disagreement in there about what makes up a "small business."  But those small businesses looking to expand and hire, as the links I shared from CNBC and CNN seem to indicate ... spells good things for the economy.

The bull market isn't really relevant when we're talking specifically about (as the CNBC article states) employers who employ between 5 and 9 employees.  These are not publicly traded companies.  Or as this article gets into ... small businesses have been responsible for creating 2 out of every 3 jobs in this country for the past 20 years.

And I'm sure you'd agree one of the problems and concerns about sustainability in our economy is the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.   For years the concerns have been Wall Street is experiencing a boom that isn't being reflected on Main Street.  "It's just a casino where people go to make some quick cash!"

We might be looking at a situation where the opposite is becoming a reality. 

Are the unsustainability concerns still valid?  Does the economy grow from the top down or the ground up?


The sustainability concerns are certainly still valid because ultimately all of this is connected. Small businesses are connected to the financial economy through 401k's and more indirectly by the fact that demand in general is reduced as people take losses in their retirement or stock investments, or as businesses find it hard to get financing, all of which happens in a credit crisis.

I agree that small business is the biggest employer in the US and I have no doubt that the sentiment is as you say. That puts us somewhere near the "mania" phase of the bubble.



Regarding the idea that we are seeing bottom up growth, it would seem to me that its the opposite. The top down stimulus has worked its way through the economy and is now beginning to generate a little price inflation for the first time. According to some metrics, wage growth is happening faster than expected and that goes right along with what you are saying about small businesses looking to expand.

I don't think many inflation hawks thought it would take this long given how large the dose of monetary expansion was we were dealing with. But that can be explained by a number of factors. One was the negative sentiment that lingered for a long time after 08. The other thing hampering a return to normalcy was the fact that the banks were for the first time paid interest on the reserves they parked at the Fed which put a lid on private loan creation.

This "QE recovery" is known as the "most hated bull market of all time" largely owing to the fact that it was public knowledge that the central banks were pouring money into the markets, tainting the recovery as "artificial."

Its really only in the post-Trump era that some optimism has returned. As you say, perceptions are important.

If we were earlier in the cycle I would say we were primed for continued growth. Its only considering that this is one of the longest recoveries on record and that the key driver of growth is being slowly but surely pulled away that I think we are only 1 year or less away from a correction.

We are on the contraction path now. That guarantees a financial market correction is due. And now add a trade war on top of it and the stage is set for something historic.
  

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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #45 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 7:16pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 11th, 2018 at 6:10pm:
Oh for sure.  They aren't an unambiguous good.  But I think the inverse isn't necessarily true either ... that zero tariffs regardless what practices foreign countries engage in is an unambiguous good.


I would come pretty close to agreeing that free trade is always and no matter what the best policy.

Quote:
It's not necessarily a given that what is good for the top earners in this country with their ability to profit from directly from overseas investment is necessarily what is good for the rest of the country.  I think the past 20 years have demonstrated that to some degree.  That's great a person working part time can afford an iPhone by making payments to Verizon.  Is it really that important?

Ultimately, I do believe it is good for the rest of the country. Of course on the surface level it sucks when a plant moves its operations overseas or when cheaper imports undermine your firm's market share.

It also sucks when a machine puts you out of a job or when your neighbor comes up with a better idea than you and drives you out of business.

The same kind of competitive churn that we love inside the border somehow takes on a new light when it is driven by actions from those people "over there" in a foreign land.

But in trying to wall ourselves off from the influence of those markets, we do nothing but make them and ourselves poorer.

Quote:
And I don't think we need to preserve "protectionist" managed trade agreements hashed out over the past decades to benefit those major donors to political candidates that aren't necessarily in the best interests of the average American worker.

There is more to it than just "tariffs bad, mkay."  We're not talking about a free market here where there was no protectionism and we're introducing protectionism.  We're simply talking about swapping one form for another. 

It's one of the things I think gets overlooked in all these tariff discussions popping up on the boards.


While I agree that those trade agreements have many issues, one of the good things about them is that they generally reduced tariff rates. They were the outcome of a process of negotiation.

And it looks like we're heading in the other direction now. Instead of coming to our trade partners and saying, "we're considering reducing this duty, what will you give us?" we're coming at them with an increase and of course they will respond with an increase of their own.

Right now the best case scenario would be for everyone to just holster their guns and go back to how things were. But that's simply not going to happen.

And thats fine if higher tariffs are your ultimate goal. But if you don't want higher tariffs, we're basically just holding a gun to our own heads.
Quote:
I honestly thought it would happen by now.

But we need to be clear on what we're talking about.  And if Wall Street no longer acts as a barometer for Main Street as even I think you and I have agreed in the past ... I'm not sure Wall Street experiencing a drop means as much as it did in 1929.

Queshank


I have no doubt the two are connected but it simply took longer for the link to be made than people might have guessed. Now it seems like Main Street is acting as a barometer for Wall st. The relationship has been inverted.
  

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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #46 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 7:28pm
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Luther wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 6:56am:
I think you are right Wink

Even Hillary will win. The left will know now, vote, and don't vote 3rd party.
  

Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek
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Re: Trump had 34% approval rating the week before he won the presidency.
Reply #47 - Mar 13th, 2018 at 6:29am
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Queshank wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 11:11am:
Queshank


Quote:
Then she got into a presidential campaign with Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.


Then came the E-mail scandal that never ended by the media


That is what did her in + Trump duping just enough people Wink


  

All throughout our American history, world history, "ordinary people can do extraordinary things"


un·known quan·ti·ty
noun
a person or thing whose nature, value, or significance cannot be determined or is not yet known.
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