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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) How much damage will tariffs really do? (Read 850 times)
Queshank
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How much damage will tariffs really do?
Mar 12th, 2018 at 11:09am
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I know there've been other threads ... primarily geared towards mocking "Trumpers" for not protesting Trump's tariffs.

And honestly, tariffs are a traditionally pro Democrat stance.  So it's interesting seeing all of the left leaning outlets shitting a brick.

When Bush implemented em in the early '00s, his Democratic opposition in the form of Dick Gephardt didn't scream about how they were going to start a trade war and crash the world's economies ... he instead bellyached that the tariffs weren't steep enough.

Traditionally Democratic institutions like the AFL-CIO and United Steelworker's Union are supporting Trump's moves on tariffs.

Democrats in districts Trump won are coming out in favor of the tariffs.  Because they know they have to for political reasons.  With even progressive stalwart Elizabeth Warren expressing mild support for the tariffs and opposition to attempts to block them suggesting "prior" trade deals benefited international corporations.

But that's all besides the point.  I'm only sharing that because I think it's hilarious that the kneejerk reaction of Democrats is to oppose because it's Trump and it's just one more thing that Democrats have to fight with each other about.

I think there's two things that have been lacking in these conversations about the merits or lack thereof of tariffs, and ignoring them make the arguments weaker.

The first angle I think being ignored by both the screaming mouthpieces on our national stage and by the anti tariff crowd here on LNF is ... we deal with tariffs all the time.  It's not like the world is this free trade paradise where no tariffs exist and then suddenly along came ignorant ass Trump to crappity smack up everybody's party.  Much ado is made about the EU, so just focusing on them ...

As you can see in the news that sees fit to cover more of the conversation than steel tariffs, the EU has 10% tariffs on all imported cars.  The EU also has tariffs on all agricultural products to protect the pricing for domestic European farmers.  The EU the Democrats are so enamored with is basically a big protectionist racket where member nation are required to implement tariffs to protect the products of other member states.  And while no tariffs exist between member nations, they do all have a "common customs duty tariff" against goods from outside the EU in addition to protecting cheese and champagne named after locations.  By ignoring this the anti tariff crowd actually seems to be arguing FOR tariffs ... as long as it's other countries doing the tariffing.  The truly ironic thing here is the EU actually threatened to implement emergency tariffs on ... wait for it ... steel due to China subsidizing their own producers and lowering the global price of steel with overproduction.   Where were the outcries about global financial meltdown and trade wars when the EU was slapping tariffs on Australian wines to protect their own wine industry?

Does the United States not have a right to protect its own workers in the same way the EU protects theirs?  If not, why not?  This needs to be addressed if the goal is to persuade the pro tariff crowd ... like the blue collar workers in these Rust Belt states and steel unions ... to change their position.  And you're not going to change Trump's position til you change theirs.  It's a political calculation for Trump more than an economic one.  Just like it is for those Trump district Democrats coming out in favor of these tariff ideas.

Additionally because there are so many variables and issues being addressed ... and due to the ongoing renegotiation of NAFTA ... it's impossible to tell how much of this is just bluster and strong arm negotiating tactics and an element of Trump's foreign policy maneuvers.  Why do the anti tariff crowd think that only American companies will suffer and protest their government's actions ... what are the odds that foreign companies suddenly losing market share in the lucrative United States market won't do a little protesting their own governments as well?

In the absence of addressing these types of issues, it's hard to tell valid anti tariff arguments from the cacophonous anti Trump caterwauling that prevails on the national level.

Waiver: Nothing I've said here should be indicative of support for tariffs or Trump.  I'm pointing to what I see as a problem in the case being made by those shitting chickens about Trump's pronouncements.  I'm still firmly of the opinion we have much bigger fish to fry.

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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junglejim
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #1 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:16pm
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Lomelis
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #2 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:18pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 11:09am:
I know there've been other threads ... primarily geared towards mocking "Trumpers" for not protesting Trump's tariffs.

And honestly, tariffs are a traditionally pro Democrat stance.  So it's interesting seeing all of the left leaning outlets shitting a brick.

When Bush implemented em in the early '00s, his Democratic opposition in the form of Dick Gephardt didn't scream about how they were going to start a trade war and crash the world's economies ... he instead bellyached that the tariffs weren't steep enough.

Traditionally Democratic institutions like the AFL-CIO and United Steelworker's Union are supporting Trump's moves on tariffs.

Democrats in districts Trump won are coming out in favor of the tariffs.  Because they know they have to for political reasons.  With even progressive stalwart Elizabeth Warren expressing mild support for the tariffs and opposition to attempts to block them suggesting "prior" trade deals benefited international corporations.

But that's all besides the point.  I'm only sharing that because I think it's hilarious that the kneejerk reaction of Democrats is to oppose because it's Trump and it's just one more thing that Democrats have to fight with each other about.

I think there's two things that have been lacking in these conversations about the merits or lack thereof of tariffs, and ignoring them make the arguments weaker.

The first angle I think being ignored by both the screaming mouthpieces on our national stage and by the anti tariff crowd here on LNF is ... we deal with tariffs all the time.  It's not like the world is this free trade paradise where no tariffs exist and then suddenly along came ignorant ass Trump to crappity smack up everybody's party.  Much ado is made about the EU, so just focusing on them ...


Yes, we do deal with this kind of horseshit on a regular basis.  Much like regulations, tariffs are an attempt to control our behavior through our pocketbooks.  Impose higher costs on certain services and products and we will seek cheaper or different alternatives.  Raise the cost of imported goods and we have less incentive to purchase foreign goods or services.

It's about control.  It's selfish.  It's wrong.  These people know they are making life more expensive and difficult for others in order to subsidize their own mistakes at life.  It's horseshit and I'm not going to coddle a bunch of selfish shits.    
« Last Edit: Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:31pm by Lomelis »  

Ignorant Blessings from Wads:

Wadsworth wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 4:13pm:
Watched it.  A shotgun is for long ranged shooting.  That is why hunters like them.  An AR-15 is not.  That video was misleading.

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Queshank
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #3 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:22pm
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Lomelis wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:18pm:
Yes, we do deal with this kind of horseshit on a regular basis.  Much like regulations, tariffs are an attempt to control our behavior through our pocketbooks.  Impose higher costs on certain services and products and we will seek cheaper or different alternatives.  Raise the cost of exported goods and we have less incentive to purchase foreign goods or services.

It's about control.  It's selfish.  It's wrong.  These people know they are making life more expensive and difficult for others in order to subsidize their own mistakes at life.  It's horseshit and I'm not going to coddle a bunch of selfish shits.    


So you're fine with other countries imposing tariffs on our products hurting people in those industries, you only care that you get cheaper goods because dammit you're an Amurican and you're entitled?

Isn't that being a selfish shit?

/tongueincheek

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #4 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:24pm
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More long winded Q bullshit.

Example: his claim that tariffs are traditionally a Democratic agenda item.

False.

He forgets that both Smoot and Hawley were Republicans who pushed through their protectionist tariffs in 1930, passed by a Republican Congress and signed by a Republican president.

Traditionally tariffs are demanded by the business sector, to which the GOP has long been aligned. Today's steel, aluminum, washing machine, and other Trump tariffs demanded by the respective businesses, not by Democrats.

FAIL
  

When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag, carrying a cross, and wearing road kill as a toupée
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Demos
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #5 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:25pm
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Quote:
How much damage will tariffs really do?

Just look back at the Bush tariffs, which reportedly cost us more jobs than the steel industry employed at the time and saw steep increases in costs for steel using industries (Links posted in this thread, which I thought stayed focused mainly on the tariff issue).

And we know from other past protectionist tariff policies, that the impact will most assuredly be a net negative. How much of a negative impact really depends on how fully the administration implements these tariffs. At first there weren't going to be any exceptions, then Canada and Mexico were exempted, and other countries were mentioned as possibly being exempted (e.g. Australia).

So, if this ends up being limited to China, the impact will be pretty limited. If not, you can probably except to see something larger than what happened with the Bush tariffs.
  
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Queshank
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #6 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:28pm
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Ulysses wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:24pm:
More long winded Q bullshit.

Example: his claim that tariffs are traditionally a Democratic agenda item.

False.


Oreally?

Ulysses, I provided several links.  You're not arguing with me you're arguing with reality.

Quote:
He forgets that both Smoot and Hawley were Republicans who pushed through their protectionist tariffs in 1930, passed by a Republican Congress and signed by a Republican president.


Oh so now the Republicans and the Democrats never switched roles?  The Democrats of the 1930s are the same as the Democrats of today? 

That's a twist on a long running narrative about how the parties switched and that's why the Republicans are racists now and not the Democrats like they were in the 30s.  You might wanna check the Talking Points Bulletin Board and get an update.

Quote:
Traditionally tariffs are demanded by the business sector, to which the GOP has long been aligned. Today's steel, aluminum, washing machine, and other Trump tariffs demanded by the respective businesses, not by Democrats.

FAIL


Weird that Democrats and Unions support them eh?

Why did you waste so much time ignoring the multiple links in the OP in order to maintain your delusions?

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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Lomelis
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #7 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:35pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:22pm:
So you're fine with other countries imposing tariffs on our products hurting people in those industries, you only care that you get cheaper goods because dammit you're an Amurican and you're entitled?

Isn't that being a selfish shit?

/tongueincheek

Queshank



No, I don't support tariffs by anyone.  But I don't agree that we should respond to tariffs with tariffs.  If those countries want to harm their own people that's on them.
  

Ignorant Blessings from Wads:

Wadsworth wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 4:13pm:
Watched it.  A shotgun is for long ranged shooting.  That is why hunters like them.  An AR-15 is not.  That video was misleading.

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Ulysses
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #8 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:37pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:28pm:
Oreally?

Ulysses, I provided several links.  You're not arguing with me you're arguing with reality.


Don't believe everything you can link on the Internet!


Quote:
Oh so now the Republicans and the Democrats never switched roles?  The Democrats of the 1930s are the same as the Democrats of today? 


Where did I claim that???

Quote:
That's a twist on a long running narrative about how the parties switched and that's why the Republicans are racists now and not the Democrats like they were in the 30s.  You might wanna check the Talking Points Bulletin Board and get an update.


You are confusing Republican racism with Republican corporatism.

Quote:
Weird that Democrats and Unions support them eh?


A handful of Rust Belt Dems support Trump's tariffs. The Democratic Party in general has resisted tariffs for decades. You are confusing these few with the rest of the party.

And Unions are not necessarily Democratic captives. I recall Richard Nixon being VERY cozy with the Teamsters, for example.

Quote:
Why did you waste so much time ignoring the multiple links in the OP in order to maintain your delusions?


Unlike some here, I don't regard your scribblings or your links as Gospel. I prefer to think for myself.


  

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Queshank
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #9 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:41pm
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Demos wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:25pm:
Just look back at the Bush tariffs, which reportedly cost us more jobs than the steel industry employed at the time and saw steep increases in costs for steel using industries (Links posted in this thread, which I thought stayed focused mainly on the tariff issue).

And we know from other past protectionist tariff policies, that the impact will most assuredly be a net negative. How much of a negative impact really depends on how fully the administration implements these tariffs. At first there weren't going to be any exceptions, then Canada and Mexico were exempted, and other countries were mentioned as possibly being exempted (e.g. Australia).

So, if this ends up being limited to China, the impact will be pretty limited. If not, you can probably except to see something larger than what happened with the Bush tariffs.


I get it.  You've got valid reasons for thinking tariffs are bad.

For some reason there's people who disagree with you. 

That's the point in starting this thread.

This thread is about the lack of addressing the tariffs the world already slaps on goods.  It's a weakness in your argument Demos.

It's not me you need to convince.  That's what I'm trying to stress here.

Why are tariffs bad for us, but not bad for the EU?  How has the EU managed to avoid catastrophic job loss in their wine and cheese and champagne and food industries?  And more specifically, why haven't those overseas tariffs sparked trade wars?

Queshank

  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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