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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) How much damage will tariffs really do? (Read 859 times)
Demos
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #20 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 4:19pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 4:10pm:
And the point is ... there's simply too many variables at play for one thing to be picked out as the problem.

Which problem?

It is entirely possible to quantify the effects of protectionist tariffs, because you can determine the cost increases in steel, which in turn impacts steel using industries (allowing you to measure job losses, etc.), and you can also quantify price increases as a result. It was done with Bush's tariffs. 

Also, the EU probably isn't as protectionist as you might think:

The EU isn’t protectionist – it’s one of the most open economies in the world
  
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #21 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 6:20pm
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Lomelis wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 1:03pm:
Of course.  France, Spain, Italy, you know many of those places protecting their wine and cheese have terrible economies.  Wage growth has stagnated, unemployment is high, and there are serious movements in these countries to leave the EU.  Just like Britain.



The reason Britain voted ‘leave’ most assuredly wasn’t anything to do with economics.

The subject was hotly debated prior to the referendum. It gained little traction because the arguments are so finely balanced.


As with ‘leave’ movements elsewhere in Europe, it was about ill-educated nationalism and xenophobia.


Before anyone like Stu leaps in, nothing to do with Islamic immigrants. Not an EU issue. Although propaganda was effective in conflating the two.


Tariffs as a reason to vote leave?


Absolutely, categorically not. 
  

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Under Communism, it's the exact opposite.
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #22 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 6:42pm
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Demos wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 4:19pm:
Which problem?

It is entirely possible to quantify the effects of protectionist tariffs, because you can determine the cost increases in steel, which in turn impacts steel using industries (allowing you to measure job losses, etc.), and you can also quantify price increases as a result. It was done with Bush's tariffs. 


So is there absolutely no benefit to local steel markets in increased competitiveness, and no increase in employment and good paying blue collar jobs in the steel industry?  That can't be quantified?  Someone shared an article doing just that to some degree from the WSJ earlier in the thread.

How do you quantify the need for a nation to have its own steel production to create its own tanks, fighter jets and ships?  What's the value on that?  Do we rely on China for that?  Or even Canada?  That's another thing missing from this conversation that I didn't have room for in my OP.  This started out as a national security recommendation from the Commerce Department.  Of course we can quibble about amounts and how MUCH we need ... but the fact is we need domestic steel production.

That's actually why I've argued myself against using our oil reserves here in the states.  When the day comes, we wanna be the last ones with jet fuel and diesel for our tanks. 

And it's why Pat Robertson (EDIT: HAHAHAHA.  Buchanan) actually wrote in defense of Obusha's bailout of the auto industry because in WW2 we converted those assembly lines to creating jeeps and tanks.

Quote:
Also, the EU probably isn't as protectionist as you might think:

The EU isn’t protectionist – it’s one of the most open economies in the world


I haven't researched the particulars of the claims made in that blog entry Demos, just gave it a quick read.  There's not a lot of meat there.  And it actually seems to be arguing against Donald Trump's "Very protectionist" claim.  I'm always immediately suspicious when the goal of an opinion piece is to counter the claims of Trump.  Because nobody ever acknowledges Trump is a used car salesman and having a political conversation ... not an economic one.

And almost no mention of quotas ... a euphemism for tariffs.  (There's those other variables that always confuse the shit out of me)

But FEE claims otherwise.  As do a whole lot of other economic thinktanks and not all of them Trumpian.

The EU Is Still Sweet on Protectionism - Foundation for Economic Education Oct 18, 2017

And the Financial Times (Shared this earlier but worth a repeat)

The EU unwisely slides towards protectionism - Financial Times, Nov 14, 2016

We can probably share countering "appeals to experts" all day long.

But just a little needle for the Ulysses minded in the crowd.  Did you guys know Trump's trade guru Peter Navarro ran for office in California 4 times as a Democrat? 

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
I am not aware of any article
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #23 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 6:45pm
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Limey. wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 6:20pm:
The reason Britain voted ‘leave’ most assuredly wasn’t anything to do with economics.

The subject was hotly debated prior to the referendum. It gained little traction because the arguments are so finely balanced.


As with ‘leave’ movements elsewhere in Europe, it was about ill-educated nationalism and xenophobia.


Before anyone like Stu leaps in, nothing to do with Islamic immigrants. Not an EU issue. Although propaganda was effective in conflating the two.


Tariffs as a reason to vote leave?


Absolutely, categorically not. 


The entire reason I call shenanigans on this claim by you Limey is while the Brexit vote was going on I watched a woman from the UK on Real Time with Bill Maher make the case that leaving Brexit was a free trade move.

That might not be why the vote passed.  But it was definitely one of the reasons it was supported by people who voted leave and definitely one of the reasons why the people who campaigned FOR Brexit were campaigning for Brexit.

You can take my word for it Limey.  I'm an American.  I just know these things.

It really sounds like you're making the same argument for Brexit happening because of your ignorant, stupid, racist neighbors as leftists have erroneously been making here as to why Trump won the election.  So I'm instantly skeptical even tho I respect your objectivity and opinions immensely. 

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
I am not aware of any article
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #24 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 6:52pm
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Hey Q, check this out.  You might find it interesting.

http://triblive.com/local/valleynewsdispatch/13367907-74/ati-kicks-off-venture-w...

Oh, a personal note.  This is where I used to work.  In Midland PA.

Greg
  

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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #25 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 6:57pm
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Oh, of course, this is the claimed downside:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/02/13/chinese-steel-dumping-takes-c...

So, hiring workers back... good.  Dumping steel... bad...

What to do?

Greg
  

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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #26 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 6:59pm
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Greg55_99 wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 6:52pm:
Hey Q, check this out.  You might find it interesting.

http://triblive.com/local/valleynewsdispatch/13367907-74/ati-kicks-off-venture-w...

Oh, a personal note.  This is where I used to work.  In Midland PA.

Greg


Awesome.  Sounds good. 

As it's being manufactured here in the United States, will they be subject to the tariffs?

Is it a smart move by the Chinese or a smart move by Trump to encourage these companies to build factories here to compete with imported steel?

Or a smart move by both?  Does it have to be zero sum?

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
I am not aware of any article
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #27 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 7:00pm
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Greg55_99 wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 6:57pm:
Oh, of course, this is the claimed downside:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/02/13/chinese-steel-dumping-takes-c...

So, hiring workers back... good.  Dumping steel... bad...

What to do?

Greg


If it's being manufactured in factories here in the United States is it Chinese steel or American?

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
I am not aware of any article
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #28 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 7:04pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 12:43pm:
So your protest here is that the Democrats don't support tariffs?


No, my protest is that you falsely claimed the following:

"And honestly, tariffs are a traditionally pro Democrat stance."

I pointed out where this is not the case. You dismissed that as historical... excuse me, but what does "traditionally" mean on  your planet?

Quote:
Regardless of what notables like Dick Gephardt and Elizabeth Warren have to say on the subject?


Dick Gebhart resigned from Congess in 2005, and has been a lobbyist for US Steel since then. Small wonder if he supports Trump's steel tariffs (although I could not find any statements from him to that effect), and he most certainly doesn't represent the Democratic Party or the majority of Democrats.

Quote:
Your disagreement with my point is limited to unions being Republican not Democratic institutions?


Good Grief! You really have a knack for twisting other people's words and assuming they said stuff they didn't say! You are so full of yourself. I've already explained my first problem with your diatribe. I never said Democrats are not union friendly. I'm only saying that Republicans also court the union vote when it serves their political agenda.

Quote:
That's really your takeaway?


There's little to nothing of value in your OP that I could take away.

Quote:
Do you have anything to say about the actual point of the OP?  Why are tariffs imposed by the EU on our goods okay and just hunky dory ... but a suggestion we'd do the same is a disaster of epic proportions and likely to kick off a global trade war?


Oh, you claim that was the point of your OP? It would appear your point is that Democrats "shit chickens" about anything Trump proposes. Which, since you claim some Dems support Trump's tariffs, means you have contradicted yourself. Bigly. That's a nice way of putting it. Lying like a rug is another way.

As for tariffs being bad... let's go back again to Smooth Hawley. In the 1920's, the international community got together and agreed to a multinational agreement to do away with tariffs. The Republican Congress in the USA refused to ratify the agreement. Instead, they came up with broad tariffs on most all imports. Europe and other regions had no choice but to respond in kind. When FDR kicked Hoover in the ass, and got a Dem majority, he was able to slowly roll back the counter-productive Smoot-Hawley tariff structure. But the other nations clung to theirs, perhaps because once bit twice shy.

Now if you want to press the point that tariffs are bad, you can't have a selective memory and dismiss past Republican tariff disasters while attacking Dems who express "mild support" for Trump's steel tariffs.
  

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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #29 - Mar 12th, 2018 at 7:09pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 12th, 2018 at 7:00pm:
If it's being manufactured in factories here in the United States is it Chinese steel or American?

Queshank


Try checking your facts for a change. Most steel imported into the USA is from Canada. China is way down the list (like tenth):

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-factbox/factbox-top-steel-exporters...

Quote:
Following are the top steel exporters to the United States with their corresponding percentage of total U.S. steel imports:

1. Canada 16.7 percent

2. Brazil 13.2 percent

3. South Korea 9.7 percent

4. Mexico 9.4 percent

5. Russia 8.1 percent

6. Turkey 5.6 percent

7. Japan 4.9 percent

8. Germany 3.7 percent

9. Taiwan 3.2 percent

10. China 2.9 percent

11. India 2.4 percent


*SIGH*
  

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