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Liberty News ForumLNF Forums HerePolitical Opinion Page - The Hot Seat › How much damage will tariffs really do?
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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) How much damage will tariffs really do? (Read 755 times)
Lomelis
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #50 - Mar 14th, 2018 at 5:41am
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Queshank wrote on Mar 13th, 2018 at 11:34pm:
That's a bit of a redirection isn't it?

Why specifically did steel start to rebound as it was predicted to do the year before?  What changed?

I'm not trying to do any funny business here.  I honestly have no idea.  Your response might give me more refined research parameters that give me more questions.  But I can honestly say from the limited research I've done thus far the biggest indicators seem to be the shifting tone of the American political scene and its impact on the economy.


I'm sure someone will find something to try.  And like always ... they'll crappity smack something up.  The laws of unintended consequences.  But the thing I always try to come to grips with is ... the playing field is balanced as it is because of prior "trying something and crappity smacking it ups."


Heh.  Where's MFA so we can rib him?


First we have to agree on what constitutes a threat don't we?  Sometimes that takes a discussion.  Sometimes a debate.  Sometimes two different departments might have different needs and suggestions ... while they both call it a National Security issue ...

How many tanks we can create on our own in a sustained war is enough?  What if Russia, China, North Korea and the United States get involved in some shit?  Trump keeps his head very very far down on Russia.  My leftist brethren call that collusion and puppetry.  Sometimes it's not hard to imagine it looking like trying to defuse a powder keg the American left ...manipulated by foreign policy interventionists with a long history of crappity smacking things up ...keeps trying to ignite.  Potato.  Potatoe.  Do we really want Russia and China making common cause?


How much steel do we need to win a war versus China?  I'm not suggesting there's a war on with China or going to be.  But what country doesn't plan for every eventuality if it wants to remain a country? 


Are the pieces on the board the same as they were in 2002? 

Same moves?  Same factors?  Same variables?  Same economy?

Almost none of them are the same are they?


I believe you actually stated the DOD said the claim was bs.  I pointed out the DOD said nothing of the kind and in fact agreed but said we need to be careful and not apply this too broadly.  Which subsequently happened.

But you're repeating the claim that the tariff wasn't justified on national security grounds anyway.  Why?


I imagine the owners aren't ecstatic about it.  Sometimes owners dealing with monthly payroll and fixed expenses have a hard time seeing the big picture.  It's why like 90% of them fail.  Some of the workers seem to be pretty ecstatic tho.

I think I enjoy 538's podcasts more than any other political podcast these days.  They're realists and seldom succumb to TDS.  Their take just today: Trump’s Tariffs Could Actually Work — If He Has A Plan

But these risks don’t mean tariffs are doomed to fail; they just require a long-term goal that justifies the short-term cost in jobs and dollars — and a way to reach it.

This kind of targeted tariff helped save Harley Davidson, for example. In the early 1980s, the company was losing market share to smaller, more affordable imports from Japan. Bankruptcy seemed a real possibility until President Ronald Reagan agreed to introduce a severe protective tariff.


They've got some in there about EU's protectionist policies that are pretty relevant to our conversation as well.

Queshank


I did not know that Reagan instituted tariffs to save Harleys.

The worst mistake ever.  Humanity would be better off without the Harley.
  

Deny, Ignore, Evade, Distract, Place Blame Elsewhere!  Must defend the Trump Messiah!

But, but, but....but Hillary, but Lynch, but Obama, but Boosh, but Clinton!
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Demos
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #51 - Mar 14th, 2018 at 11:14am
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Queshank wrote on Mar 13th, 2018 at 11:34pm:
Why specifically did steel start to rebound as it was predicted to do the year before?  What changed?

Tariffs didn't change, and US steel production has been on the rebound since 2009 (there was a big drop in production between 2008 and 2009).

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How many tanks we can create on our own in a sustained war is enough?...

How much steel do we need to win a war versus China?...

Good questions. I would need to look that up. 

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Are the pieces on the board the same as they were in 2002? Same moves?  Same factors?  Same variables?  Same economy?

Obviously not, but as a campaign device they weren't incredibly successful, and generally aren't.

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But you're repeating the claim that the tariff wasn't justified on national security grounds anyway.  Why?

Because it's not justified on the facts. Chinese dumping isn't a threat to the US industry. The tariff impacts our allies more than any "enemies." In geopolitical terms, it's not very helpful vis a vis the North Korean situation when one of our partners in those efforts S. Korea is a target of the tariffs.

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Some of the workers seem to be pretty ecstatic tho.

If they're in a steel using industry, they shouldn't be.

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I saw that yesterday. Of course, these tariffs aren't targeted. They may wind up being targeted, because I think there will eventually be more exemptions than just Canada and Mexico.
  
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Queshank
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #52 - Mar 14th, 2018 at 11:55am
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Demos wrote on Mar 14th, 2018 at 11:14am:
Because it's not justified on the facts. Chinese dumping isn't a threat to the US industry. The tariff impacts our allies more than any "enemies." In geopolitical terms, it's not very helpful vis a vis the North Korean situation when one of our partners in those efforts S. Korea is a target of the tariffs.


That's a direct contradiction of what both the DOD and the Commerce Dept said.

I think you're conflating two things.  Private industry and national security.  You're saying it's not a threat to the US industry.  The DOD and Commerce Dept are saying they're a threat to national security.  Those two statements can both be correct.

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If they're in a steel using industry, they shouldn't be.


/shrug.  Tell that to the workers at Harley Davidson.  Personally I agree with Lomelis ... the death of the Harley Davidson motorcycle company would have been a net positive for humanity in several quantifiable ways.  But in the past number of years there've been freakin Harley Davidson merchandise shops popping up all over my region. 

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I saw that yesterday. Of course, these tariffs aren't targeted. They may wind up being targeted, because I think there will eventually be more exemptions than just Canada and Mexico.


Yeah, because they've quite obviously been part of his foreign policy strategy. 

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
I am not aware of any article
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Demos
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Re: How much damage will tariffs really do?
Reply #53 - Mar 14th, 2018 at 12:30pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 14th, 2018 at 11:55am:
That's a direct contradiction of what both the DOD and the Commerce Dept said.

I think the Commerce Department is full of shit. The DOD said unfair trade practices like China's hurt national security (notice they left out pretty everyone else impacted by these tariffs), but Chinese dumping isn't impacting our steel industry (I'd also point out that there are already a lot of restrictions on Chinese steel and steel manufactured products).

Furthermore, DOD said their requirements only represent 3 percent of production. "Therefore, DoD does not believe that the findings in the reports impact the ability of DoD programs to acquire the steel·or aluminum necessary to meet national defense requirements" (Source).

Quote:
I think you're conflating two things.  Private industry and national security.

That's not what the Commerce Department is doing? They're saying the threat to our steel industry is a threat to national security.  From the Commerce report: "Domestic steel production is essential for national security applications.... Domestic steel production depends on a healthy and competitive U.S. industry... Excessive steel imports have adversely impacted the steel industry."

But steel imports haven't adversely impacted the steel industry. Production was up in 2017, it's been going up since 2009, and their competitiveness issues have to do with other factors than imports (which we don't ever seem to address). And DOD says this doesn't impact their ability to acquire the steel necessary for defense requirements.

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Yeah, because they've quite obviously been part of his foreign policy strategy.

More likely because of the pushback from DOD, who wants these to be more targeted. That's most likely the reason for the Canada and Mexico exemptions, as well as the talk of exempting other allies. Backlash from Congress probably didn't help either.
« Last Edit: Mar 14th, 2018 at 2:08pm by Demos »  
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