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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Ben Bernanke: Economy going "over the cliff" by 2020 (Read 337 times)
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Re: Ben Bernanke: Economy going "over the cliff" by 2020
Reply #10 - Jun 13th, 2018 at 2:14am
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- from the guy that caused the economy to go off the cliff when he was Fed chairman
  

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Re: Ben Bernanke: Economy going "over the cliff" by 2020
Reply #11 - Jun 13th, 2018 at 2:20am
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TowardLiberty wrote on Jun 12th, 2018 at 2:07pm:
Yeah, that's accurate as far as I can tell.


Depending on what is happening with trade, it very well could. Usually high interest rates and dollar shortages mean asset prices fall but a stagflation scenario is also possible.
I think that sounds very plausible.


Thanks.

And while these experts are predicting a crash in 2020... I suspect that if it's going to happen, it's going to happen sooner than that. As soon as the end of this year (2018), or early 2019.

It's also often that while market crashes tend to occur rapidly, recoveries take a lot longer.
  

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Re: Ben Bernanke: Economy going "over the cliff" by 2020
Reply #12 - Jun 13th, 2018 at 2:38am
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Bernanke howlers leading up to the 2008 collapse:


Nov. 15, 2005

"With respect to their safety, derivatives, for the most part, are traded among very sophisticated financial institutions and individuals who have considerable incentive to understand them and to use them properly."


Feb. 15, 2006

"Housing markets are cooling a bit. Our expectation is that the decline in activity or the slowing in activity will be moderate, that house prices will probably continue to rise."



March 28, 2007
 
"At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. In particular, mortgages to prime borrowers and fixed-rate mortgages to all classes of borrowers continue to perform well, with low rates of delinquency."


Feb. 15, 2007
 
"Despite the ongoing adjustments in the housing sector, overall economic prospects for households remain good. Household finances appear generally solid, and delinquency rates on most types of consumer loans and residential mortgages remain low."


May 17, 2007

"All that said, given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system. The vast majority of mortgages, including even subprime mortgages, continue to perform well. Past gains in house prices have left most homeowners with significant amounts of home equity, and growth in jobs and incomes should help keep the financial obligations of most households manageable."


Jan. 18, 2008

(Two months before Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac collapsed and were nationalized) "They will make it through the storm."

  
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Re: Ben Bernanke: Economy going "over the cliff" by 2020
Reply #13 - Jun 13th, 2018 at 10:35am
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patrick2 wrote on Jun 13th, 2018 at 2:38am:
Bernanke howlers leading up to the 2008 collapse:


Nov. 15, 2005

"With respect to their safety, derivatives, for the most part, are traded among very sophisticated financial institutions and individuals who have considerable incentive to understand them and to use them properly."


Feb. 15, 2006

"Housing markets are cooling a bit. Our expectation is that the decline in activity or the slowing in activity will be moderate, that house prices will probably continue to rise."



March 28, 2007
 
"At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. In particular, mortgages to prime borrowers and fixed-rate mortgages to all classes of borrowers continue to perform well, with low rates of delinquency."


Feb. 15, 2007
 
"Despite the ongoing adjustments in the housing sector, overall economic prospects for households remain good. Household finances appear generally solid, and delinquency rates on most types of consumer loans and residential mortgages remain low."


May 17, 2007

"All that said, given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system. The vast majority of mortgages, including even subprime mortgages, continue to perform well. Past gains in house prices have left most homeowners with significant amounts of home equity, and growth in jobs and incomes should help keep the financial obligations of most households manageable."


Jan. 18, 2008

(Two months before Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac collapsed and were nationalized) "They will make it through the storm."



Yes, those are horrible predictions. But to be fair, I suspect that was more wishful thinking than honesty. After all, consider the role he was in when making these comments.

But aside from that, let's take him at his word on these predictions. It just goes to show that he is no doom and gloomer. He actually has a bias toward optimism, if anything.

So that puts even more of a point on his call that the economy is going off a cliff.

If Peter Schiff says it, or Marc Faber, we can breathe easy because that is a perennial prediction they make. But when a Pollyanna like Bernanke says the same thing?

  

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Re: Ben Bernanke: Economy going "over the cliff" by 2020
Reply #14 - Jun 13th, 2018 at 12:53pm
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TowardLiberty wrote on Jun 13th, 2018 at 10:35am:
Yes, those are horrible predictions. But to be fair, I suspect that was more wishful thinking than honesty. After all, consider the role he was in when making these comments.

But aside from that, let's take him at his word on these predictions. It just goes to show that he is no doom and gloomer. He actually has a bias toward optimism, if anything.

So that puts even more of a point on his call that the economy is going off a cliff.

If Peter Schiff says it, or Marc Faber, we can breathe easy because that is a perennial prediction they make. But when a Pollyanna like Bernanke says the same thing?



And none of those quotes show that Bernanke was responsible for the US housing and financial meltdown of 2008.

  

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Re: Ben Bernanke: Economy going "over the cliff" by 2020
Reply #15 - Jun 13th, 2018 at 12:59pm
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Ulysses wrote on Jun 13th, 2018 at 12:53pm:
And none of those quotes show that Bernanke was responsible for the US housing and financial meltdown of 2008.


No doubt. For that we should turn to Greenspan if we are focused on the role of Fed policy in the crisis.
  

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Re: Ben Bernanke: Economy going "over the cliff" by 2020
Reply #16 - Jun 13th, 2018 at 1:13pm
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TowardLiberty wrote on Jun 13th, 2018 at 10:35am:
Yes, those are horrible predictions. But to be fair, I suspect that was more wishful thinking than honesty. After all, consider the role he was in when making these comments.

But aside from that, let's take him at his word on these predictions. It just goes to show that he is no doom and gloomer. He actually has a bias toward optimism, if anything.


Do you suppose he could be wishfully thinking now?  I mean it seems odd that people are wishing for a recession, but Bill Maher just did exactly that as well last weekend... Trump Derangement Syndrome is powerful stuff.

Quote:
So that puts even more of a point on his call that the economy is going off a cliff.

If Peter Schiff says it, or Marc Faber, we can breathe easy because that is a perennial prediction they make. But when a Pollyanna like Bernanke says the same thing?


Peter Schiff is someone I've been following on facebook for sometime now.  He HAS been saying it.  Regularly.  Just in the last 24 hours he's shared 4 doom and gloom articles on facebook.  One about the Budget Deficit and Interest Payments, one about how bitcoin is slipping and he editorializes to say bitcoin holders should bail now, one about wholesale inflation due to oil prices, and one about the REAL economic numbers and our 21.5% unemployment, 10 percent inflation and negative economic growth.

Frankly, considering the primary reason for cyclical recessions is consumer pessimism, we should be watching consumer confidence and small business confidence more than any other metric.  And consumer confidence has been slipping in recent months from a high not long ago.  Granted it's still higher than it was during the years after the "Great Recession" but it IS slipping.  Probably disturbed in large part by the Great Trump Trade Wars of 2018.

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
I am not aware of any article
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Re: Ben Bernanke: Economy going "over the cliff" by 2020
Reply #17 - Jun 13th, 2018 at 1:16pm
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TowardLiberty wrote on Jun 13th, 2018 at 12:59pm:
No doubt. For that we should turn to Greenspan if we are focused on the role of Fed policy in the crisis.


TowardLiberty wrote on Jun 13th, 2018 at 12:59pm:
No doubt. For that we should turn to Greenspan if we are focused on the role of Fed policy in the crisis.


How Bernanke's Fed Triggered the Great Recession - Forbes - July 2011

As usual, when Fed chairman Ben Bernanke testified before Congress this week not a single Congressman asked him why he deliberately and transparently triggered the Great Recession of 2007-2009, which was accompanied by a frightening financial crisis, gargantuan bailouts and huge fiscal deficits. Nor has Bernanke been held accountable for his culpability during previous Congressional testimony or during his press conferences. Committee members and financial journalists alike are ignorant of the evidence staring them in the face.

Bernanke typically is described as that rarest of combinations: a Republican yet also an Ivy League academic, a bureaucrat who's nevertheless respectful of markets, an expert on the Great Depression yet aware of the Fed's role in it, and above all a man supposedly wise enough to not let "it" happen again. Yet in 2008-2009 Bernanke did nearly let "it" happen again -- a banking collapse, a depression, deflation -- by bringing the U.S. financial system to its knees by roughly the same Fed policy adopted in the 1930s, followed by his blizzard of paper-money printing that has caused a dollar debasement unprecedented in U.S. history. The result has been a huge destruction of wealth, spreading fiscal chaos and stagflation as far as the eye can see.

How did Bernanke create this horrible morass? First, in 2006-2007 he deliberately inverted the Treasury yield curve, even while knowing it would cause a recession and credit-financial crisis. Second, he imposed on the reeling economy a $1.7 trillion flood of "quantitative easing" (QE), euphemistic for the hazardous policy of money-printing. His first policy caused economic stagnation, his second policy caused monetary inflation, and combined, his policies have generated "stagflation" -- the corrosive mix last seen in the 1970s. It's the direct opposite of the supply-side polices (pro-growth, sound-money) that made the 1980s and 1990s so prosperous.


Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
I am not aware of any article
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Re: Ben Bernanke: Economy going "over the cliff" by 2020
Reply #18 - Jun 13th, 2018 at 1:19pm
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Queshank wrote on Jun 13th, 2018 at 1:13pm:
Do you suppose he could be wishfully thinking now?  I mean it seems odd that people are wishing for a recession, but Bill Maher just did exactly that as well last weekend... Trump Derangement Syndrome is powerful stuff.


It is definitely possible. Bernanke is an academic. Part of the elite. Trump's brand of politics would no doubt be noxious to him.

So TDS is definitely something to consider.

That said, I really like his logic. Liquidity shortages are just the sort of thing that lead to financial market sell offs.

Quote:
Peter Schiff is someone I've been following on facebook for sometime now.  He HAS been saying it.  Regularly.  Just in the last 24 hours he's shared 4 doom and gloom articles on facebook.  One about the Budget Deficit and Interest Payments, one about how bitcoin is slipping and he editorializes to say bitcoin holders should bail now, one about wholesale inflation due to oil prices, and one about the REAL economic numbers and our 21.5% unemployment, 10 percent inflation and negative economic growth.


Yeah, I've followed him since 2006 or so. And all of those points are debatable, but the idea that our current numbers are not REAL strikes me as a bit of a stretch.

I just mention him as someone who has called a recession just about every year I can remember.

Quote:
Frankly, considering the primary reason for cyclical recessions is consumer pessimism, we should be watching consumer confidence and small business confidence more than any other metric.  And consumer confidence has been slipping in recent months from a high not long ago.  Granted it's still higher than it was during the years after the "Great Recession" but it IS slipping.  Probably disturbed in large part by the Great Trump Trade Wars of 2018.

Queshank
I don't believe that is the primary reason for cyclical patterns in the economy. For my money, it is more a story about the credit cycle, liquidity and the relationship between the supply and demand for money in the economy. I see it through a monetary lens, primarily.

Consumer confidence is a good indicator as to where we are at in the cycle, though.
  

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Re: Ben Bernanke: Economy going "over the cliff" by 2020
Reply #19 - Jun 13th, 2018 at 1:23pm
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TowardLiberty wrote on Jun 13th, 2018 at 1:19pm:
I don't believe that is the primary reason for cyclical patterns in the economy. For my money, it is more a story about the credit cycle, liquidity and the relationship between the supply and demand for money in the economy. I see it through a monetary lens, primarily.

Consumer confidence is a good indicator as to where we are at in the cycle, though.


You're right I mispoke.  It's not the capital R Reason, but is one of many reasons.  I more meant it's the best mile marker.

And it is deteriorating.  Which lends credibility to Bernanke's observations.  I should point out I'm not arguing that Bernanke is wrong.  Just trying to get the whole picture.

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
I am not aware of any article
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