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Liberty News ForumLNF Forums HerePolitical Opinion Page - The Hot Seat › Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die'
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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die' (Read 1,392 times)
patrick2
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Re: Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die'
Reply #70 - Sep 13th, 2018 at 7:36pm
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Puerto Rico has only itself to blame.  It's been run for years by corrupt politicians.  They've apparently done nothing to prepare for storms.  They are de facto a foreign country and we should cut them loose.
  
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Re: Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die'
Reply #71 - Sep 13th, 2018 at 7:37pm
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wyattstorch2004 wrote on Sep 13th, 2018 at 7:06pm:
That doesn't sound like a proper way to come about those numbers to me.  Does it to you?


I wonder if there was anyone who flew to Miami to escape the storm and died in a car wreck on the way to the hotel from the airport.  Add that one to the list.


From your link:

"They said there was a 95% likelihood the death toll was somewhere between approximately 800 and 8,500 people."

Sounds like a reliable statistic...  Roll Eyes

"The new study used baseline mortality figures to calculate “excess deaths”, or loss of life that would not have occurred if the island hadn’t been plunged into a prolonged humanitarian disaster."

This strikes me as a strategy that lends itself to inaccuracy.


There's a link to the George Washington report in the Post article.  You can see how they came to their numbers.  Apparently the Government of PR allowed them access to all death records following the hurricane. 

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Re: Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die'
Reply #72 - Sep 13th, 2018 at 7:54pm
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Ulysses wrote on Sep 13th, 2018 at 3:26pm:
I don't think you or Trump understand how these things are done.

They figured the expected death toll absent a hurricane. Then they subtracted that from the deaths that did occur. The difference is the excess mortality due to the hurricane.

Now, I don't know about there not being names or even if names are required if people cannot be identified or proper records in the devastated island could not be kept. That does not negate that many people died after the hurricane from the disruption in medical services, as well as power being out for 11 months, food shortages, etc.

Perhaps we should have the World Health Organization come in and do a postmortem on Puerto Rico.

Would that satisfy you?


I did some Google calculations. Feel free to check my math.

The average death per year in PR is 8.1/thousand people. LINK

There are 3.3 million people in PR. That's 3.3 thousand thousand.

So, that's about 24,000 deaths in an average year. Is that right? And in the year following the hurricane there have (I assume) been 27,000.

What I would like to know is how much the death toll usually fluctuates. That would be important. 24k might be an average, but does it usually fluctuate between 23 and 25? 22 and 26?

I will say a few things about this.

A. I'm out of my element. If my math or logic seems wrong, I'm willing to hear why.

B. Puerto Rico was hit bad by the hurricane. Yes, they have never been well-off, but this was a disaster. Power out for weeks and months, etc.

C. Many so-called "conservatives" have spoken and reacted like monsters in the wake of this disaster.

D. I don't trust the media on this much more than I trust Trump. If either of them could spin or lie about the numbers, they would. Having said that, given the breadth of the destruction down there, I find it likely there have been more deaths than what Trump would admit, but I have no way of knowing if 3,000 is correct because the media simply isn't trustworthy, which is a shame.
  



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Re: Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die'
Reply #73 - Sep 13th, 2018 at 8:08pm
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This is very simple. The standard measurement looks at recorded deaths directly attributed to the storm, during the storm itself.

These studies looked at 4 plus months post storm and estimates deaths that may be somehow linked to the storm. Ie someone died 4 months later because they could not get chemo meda for a month post storm.
  
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wyattstorch2004
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Re: Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die'
Reply #74 - Sep 13th, 2018 at 8:19pm
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Greg55_99 wrote on Sep 13th, 2018 at 7:37pm:
There's a link to the George Washington report in the Post article.  You can see how they came to their numbers.  Apparently the Government of PR allowed them access to all death records following the hurricane. 

Greg


Ya, I read about how they did it.

And 95% certain it is between 850 and 8000 is not exactly anything I would rely upon.

Nor would I rely upon what basically amounts to, "we think there would have been X deaths if no hurricane, but there were Y deaths, so the hurricane caused 'Y minus X' deaths".
  
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Re: Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die'
Reply #75 - Sep 13th, 2018 at 8:33pm
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Greg55_99 wrote on Sep 13th, 2018 at 9:55am:




Puerto Ricans knew the official Hurricane Maria death toll ... - NBC News
https://www.nbcnews.com/.../puerto-ricans-knew-official-hurricane-maria-death-to....
1.      Cached
May 31, 2018 - A man walks past destroyed homes in Catano, Puerto Rico, on Sept. ... in the administration of Governor Ricardo Rosselló who said that the aftermath ... we knew that the official death toll was much higher than the 64 people the .... it matters to anyone other than Puerto Ricans that the government lied, and ...
And when Governor Rosselló had the golden opportunity to tell President Trump on October 3 that maybe he shouldn’t be bragging about how low the death count in Puerto Rico was when compared to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, he simply repeated that it was only 16 people.
A few hours after Trump left Puerto Rico on Air Force One, though, the government of Puerto Rico suddenly announced that the death toll had more than doubled. Trump’s visit only served to highlight the late response and federal neglect to Puerto Rico’s catastrophe — other factors that played into an island that was dying right in front of the eyes of fellow Americans.
Since that Trump visit, and the sudden change in the death toll after he left, there began a more focused push by local Puerto Rican journalists, mainland-based Puerto Rican journalists and other national outlets to find out about the death toll. And, in my experience, that’s when we began to see the government of Puerto Rico seemingly deliberately frustrating journalists on that quest. They have not given us straight answers to very basic questions, or they've just avoided answering questions all together even as they are working with George Washington University to potentially revise the figures.

Trump did it.
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Phillip 2.0
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Re: Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die'
Reply #76 - Sep 14th, 2018 at 5:53am
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20TRUMP20 wrote on Sep 13th, 2018 at 10:08am:
Did it ever dawn on you that not everybody thinks of Puerto Ricans as real Americans?




Did it ever dawn on you that those people are morons?
  
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Re: Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die'
Reply #77 - Sep 14th, 2018 at 5:56am
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Josie wrote on Sep 13th, 2018 at 2:47pm:
No one knows the actual numbers...




Yet Trump is questioning the people who have done the most research into finding the actual number. Imagine that.
  
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Re: Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die'
Reply #78 - Sep 14th, 2018 at 5:56am
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Ray nagan provided storm disaster consulting services to Puerto Rico.

Is there any way to blame Bush for puerto rico
  
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Re: Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die'
Reply #79 - Sep 14th, 2018 at 5:58am
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petep wrote on Sep 13th, 2018 at 8:08pm:
This is very simple. The standard measurement looks at recorded deaths directly attributed to the storm, during the storm itself.

These studies looked at 4 plus months post storm and estimates deaths that may be somehow linked to the storm. Ie someone died 4 months later because they could not get chemo meda for a month post storm.



If someone gets cholera directly due to the hurricane and dies a month later from it, what should they be counted as?  Roll Eyes
  
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