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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) The big winner last night ... (Read 716 times)
Queshank
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Re: The big winner last night ...
Reply #20 - Nov 7th, 2018 at 4:59pm
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Demos wrote on Nov 7th, 2018 at 3:14pm:


Who cares?  They didn't win to moderate Republicans.  They lost to moderate Democrats.

The Trumplican race has been purified.

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Not so much. The Democrats picked up two Congressional seats in districts which Hillary won in 2016. Same for the 2 Texas Senate seats (one of which has been a swing district since 2010); however, they didn't pick up the third senate seat. And the same for the Texas House seats they picked up. In short, those seats were going to be competitive, and probably won, by Democrats regardless of Beto.


The news has been chock full of how Beto has mobilized Democratic voters in Texas.  Long before the election.  And during the shot calling last night and in the aftermath. 

It does not matter if you want to split hairs and say *that's not what really happened* if the media and left wing groups are crowning Beto with the laurels.  Beto is the winner.  Nobody outside of Texas even knows the names of any of the Democratic winners in Texas.  If anybody besides you or perhaps TL responds with a name I'm going to know for a fact they googled it.

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BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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Demos
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Re: The big winner last night ...
Reply #21 - Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:00pm
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Queshank wrote on Nov 7th, 2018 at 4:59pm:
The news has been chock full of how Beto has mobilized Democratic voters in Texas.  Long before the election.  And during the shot calling last night and in the aftermath.

Sure, it's a convenient narrative, but the news also thinks yard signs are a big deal (pro tip: they're not). Where's the evidence? 

Also, our reputable local press (people who have been covering politics for years) had already identified those seats as potential pick ups for the Democrats long before Beto made any announcement.

Queshank wrote on Nov 7th, 2018 at 4:50pm:
You and Demos both are talking in terms of the Democrats taking out moderate Republicans. 

Dana Rohrabacher is a moderate? Pete Sessions? If you start looking at these candidates and where they fall ideologically in the House (see here), not sure that these are moderates. And what about the candidates running for open seats?
  
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Re: The big winner last night ...
Reply #22 - Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:10pm
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Demos wrote on Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:00pm:
Sure, it's a convenient narrative, but the news also thinks yard signs are a big deal (pro tip: they're not). Where's the evidence? 


And people keep putting yard signs in their yards don't they? 

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Also, our reputable local press (people who have been covering politics for years) had already identified those seats as potential pick ups for the Democrats long before Beto made any announcement.


How many of the 4 million people who voted for Beto voted down ballot?

Again, it doesn't matter how deserved the credit if Beto gets the credit.  I don't care if it was actually just a strong wind blowing ballots around in some of those districts.  If nobody reports the wind, Beto winds up with the crown.  That fact trumps the *but actually* facts. Every time.  It's practically the story of human existence.

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Dana Rohrabacher is a moderate? Pete Sessions? If you start looking at these candidates and where they fall ideologically in the House (see here), not sure that these are moderates.



For every Pete Sessions there's a Carlos Curbelo AND a Leonard Lance.

I think you're focusing on the pristine coloration of a few trees and ignoring the changed color of the forest.

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Demos
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Re: The big winner last night ...
Reply #23 - Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:25pm
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Queshank wrote on Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:10pm:
And people keep putting yard signs in their yards don't they?

The point is you had various news stories running this year about how Beto had a bunch of yard signs and Cruz wasn't spending money on them. As Cruz's campaign manager said, they were spending their money on more effective things. But they're [yard signs] always written about in the media as if they actually mean something. In the end, they don't mean much other than making someone feel good about having a sign in their yard. 

Fluff and puff pieces with no substance.

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How many of the 4 million people who voted for Beto voted down ballot?

How far down the ballot do you want to go? On the statewide ballot, there's not much a of drop off (few hundred thousand votes) until you get to the Court of Criminal Appeals Place 8 (Source). After that, you have a significant drop off - almost 3 million voter type drop off.

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Again, it doesn't matter how deserved the credit if Beto gets the credit.  I don't care if it was actually just a strong wind blowing ballots around in some of those districts.

It matters if you're not Beto and you're trying to figure out how to win races in this state. The only person those stories help is Beto. While the press might be talking about Beto energizing TX voters sans evidence, here's a more intriguing question: how much oxygen (aka money) did he suck away from races where it could've been helpful/made a difference?

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I think you're focusing on the pristine coloration of a few trees and ignoring the changed color of the forest.

Guess it'll be nice to look at since they won't be getting anything done in Congress.

But really, Trump backed candidates (particularly in states like Michigan) losing open House seats is a victory?
« Last Edit: Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:33pm by Demos »  
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Re: The big winner last night ...
Reply #24 - Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:35pm
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Demos wrote on Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:25pm:
The point is you had various news stories running this year about how Beto had a bunch of yard signs and Cruz wasn't spending money on them. As Cruz's campaign manager said, they were spending their money on more effective things. But they're [yard signs] always written about in the media as if they actually mean something. In the end, they don't mean much other than making someone feel good about having a sign in their yard. 

Fluff and puff pieces with no substance.


But that's a tactic.  I'm talking about a person.  And no matter whether the credit Beto is getting and is going to continue to get is deserved or not, Beto is a charismatic personality that will be able to use those laurels to advance himself politically.

Ergo...he won big last night.

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How far down the ballot do you want to go? On the statewide ballot, there's not much a of drop off until you get to the Court of Criminal Appeals Place 8 (Source). After that, you have a significant drop off - almost 3 million voter type drop off.

It matters if you're not Beto and you're trying to figure out how to win races in this state. The only person those stories help is Beto. While the press might be talking about Beto energizing TX voters sans evidence, here's a more intriguing question: how much oxygen (aka money) did he suck away from races where it could've been helpful/made a difference?


"The only person those stories help is Beto."

Yeah?  And?  That's my point.  Does a lottery ticket deserve "credit" for winning?  Does it matter if they get to spend the proceeds? 

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Guess it'll be nice to look at since they won't be getting anything done in Congress.


Nobody will be.  Except in the Senate where it matters most.  Trump might even be able to get himself a Janet Reno to block investigatory attempts.

The Democrats could try to break the record Republicans set in number of windmills they tilted at over Obamacare with a similar number of Don Quixote-esque investigations I guess.  Think that'll be terribly effective given how close so many of these contests were? 

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BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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Re: The big winner last night ...
Reply #25 - Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:39pm
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But let me frame this another way.

Besides putting some points on the board, what exactly did Democrats win last night?

Will they be able to end Trump's trade wars?

Are they going to stop the wall Trump's already not been building? 

Will they be able to stop Trump from ginning up support by engaging in our national pasttime of bombing some brown people?

They might be able to tease some salacious tax return gossip!  Oooooh!

They might start an .... dare I say it ... /shudder ... investigation!?!  Oh my stars and garters!

They can sure be a convenient reason why <insert reason Trump wants> that <insert thing Trump wants> isn't getting done tho, can't they?  More convenient than turning the Trump hose on other Republicans at any rate.

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BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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Re: The big winner last night ...
Reply #26 - Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:43pm
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Queshank wrote on Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:35pm:
I'm talking about a person.  And no matter whether the credit Beto is getting and is going to continue to get is deserved or not, Beto is a charismatic personality that will be able to use those laurels to advance himself politically.

Ergo...he won big last night.

But I'm attempting to challenge and correct your reasoning for saying he's a big winner, which was - at least in part - that he helped deliver seats for Democrats and made them competitive. The reality is that those seats were already competitive - being identified as such two years ago - and likely going to Ds anyway whether Beto was on the ticket or not.

If your argument is that he's the winner because the narrative benefits him, then sure. More fluff and puff journalism. That's a win for him. But saying he delivered seats that were already leaning D is a stretch.

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Nobody will be.  Except in the Senate where it matters most.  Trump might even be able to get himself a Janet Reno to block investigatory attempts.

He's already got that in the new acting AG.
  
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Re: The big winner last night ...
Reply #27 - Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:52pm
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Demos wrote on Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:43pm:
But I'm attempting to challenge and correct your reasoning for saying he's a big winner, which was - at least in part - that he helped deliver seats for Democrats and made them competitive. The reality is that those seats were already competitive - being identified as such two years ago - and likely going to Ds anyway whether Beto was on the ticket or not.

If your argument is that he's the winner because the narrative benefits him, then sure. More fluff and puff journalism. That's a win for him. But saying he delivered seats that were already leaning D is a stretch.


Ooooh I getcha. 

I have heard the "Beto is Kingmaker" narrative about 18 times since last night. 

I have also heard some criticism that he drew a lot of funds away from small donors that might have contributed elsewhere for more effect.  But the Beto is King narrative is drowning out the other IMO.  Especially on social media.  Have you been seeing the HuffPo fellatio they're giving him for dropping the f bomb?  He's so dreamy!

I was channeling from that mindset as I typed out the initial blurb.

(I am newly enamored with the phrase HuffPo fellatio.  I just said it out loud a few times.  It fits well with Uh Oh Spaghettios! I'm gonna wind up using that a lot lol)

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He's already got that in the new acting AG.


Right?

I'm not saying Trump has a cabinet blank check.  But I am saying he might as well have.

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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Re: The big winner last night ...
Reply #28 - Nov 7th, 2018 at 6:05pm
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Queshank wrote on Nov 7th, 2018 at 5:52pm:
I have also heard some criticism that he drew a lot of funds away from small donors that might have contributed elsewhere for more effect.

This is the more likely effect Beto had. He raised a ton of money (which was impressive no doubt), but it probably had the effect of hurting some races that needed that money.

He ran a good race for sure, but kingmaker, not so much.  

It will be interesting to see what he does in 2020. He has said he isn't running for President. Texas' other Senate seat is up for re-election then, and there will be no straight ticket voting (this is the last election in Texas that will have a straight ticket option).
  
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Re: The big winner last night ...
Reply #29 - Nov 7th, 2018 at 6:12pm
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Demos wrote on Nov 7th, 2018 at 6:05pm:
This is the more likely effect Beto had. He raised a ton of money (which was impressive no doubt), but it probably had the effect of hurting some races that needed that money.

He ran a good race for sure, but kingmaker, not so much.  

It will be interesting to see what he does in 2020. He has said he isn't running for President. Texas' other Senate seat is up for re-election then, and there will be no straight ticket voting (this is the last election in Texas that will have a straight ticket option).


All I did was like Beto's page to see what he has going on.  Everytime I see a politician's name bubble up from somewhere I follow them on facebook and see where it's going.  And I got spammed for money from Beto's campaign about 3 times a day for the past month.  It was actually kinda gross.

That's part of why I threw out that nobody outside of Texas has a clue who any of the other Democratic names are.  There were probably a lot of other Texas candidates that coulda used some funds.

Beto might play the long game and stay out of the way of the Trump manure machine in 2020.  But it's hard not to see this as similar to Obama's keynote speech IMO.

Queshank
  

BowHunter wrote on Nov 30th, 2017 at 10:24am:
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