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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Self-Driving cars (Read 916 times)
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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #20 - Mar 13th, 2019 at 9:02am
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Marvin wrote on Mar 13th, 2019 at 8:11am:
I would be hesitant to drive or ride in one while in the early years of development. Once perfected, I can see how it could cut down on mishaps.


Hi Marvin. Welcome to LNF.  Smiley

I doubt I'll ever live long enough to see SDs become commonplace, as Queshank so politely reminded me Wink. My point is, imperfect as they are now, test models are out there sharing the roads with us. Today. And I don't like it one bit.
  
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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #21 - Mar 13th, 2019 at 10:38am
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LadyBug wrote on Mar 13th, 2019 at 9:02am:
I doubt I'll ever live long enough to see SDs become commonplace, as Queshank so politely reminded me Wink. My point is, imperfect as they are now, test models are out there sharing the roads with us. Today. And I don't like it one bit.



Don't know your definition for "commonplace" but practically every major car manufacture and several large tech companies will be introducing (some have introduced) autonomous cars within the next few years. 

Are they for every driving application...no. 

And certainly trucking will be impacted first.  Advising someone to go into trucking today would be like advising someone to become a farrier in the 1930s.  Sure...there are farriers today but I can't imaging anyone thinking that it's a growth industry.

It could be that the trucks and the infrastructure they navigate will need to be redesigned to accommodate cyber-drivers.   I can see truck manufactures designing articulated vehicles to allow the control system to better maneuver shithole alleyways on their way to that one remaining Red Owl store in Eureka, South Dakota.

I'm seeing lots of electric cars on the roads today.  Seems it didn't take long for their adoption after the technology became viable.  In 5-10 years I think the same is true of driverless vehicles..

  

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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #22 - Mar 13th, 2019 at 12:43pm
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Fiddler wrote on Mar 13th, 2019 at 10:38am:
It could be that the trucks and the infrastructure they navigate will need to be redesigned to accommodate cyber-drivers.   I can see truck manufactures designing articulated vehicles to allow the control system to better maneuver shithole alleyways on their way to that one remaining Red Owl store in Eureka, South Dakota.


You think that will make it profitable?  "Articulated" vehicles? 

Why aren't they articulated now to help human drivers better maneuver shithole alleyways on their way to that one remaining Red Owl store in Eureka, South Dakota? 

By the way, I hope my mention of Red Owl didn't give you the wrong idea.  You're supposed to be picturing just how many small towns with Red Owls and Jack & Jills and dirt alleys there still are all across the country.

The main grocery store in my home town of 25,000 people ... a local institution ... has their trucking bays designed so the truckers have to pull out into the busiest street in town .... the main highway going into town ... in order to back up and unload their product.  Coke.  Pepsi.  Cass Clay.  Keebler.  Nabisco.  All of em. 

How will self driving trucks handle hitting that approach juuuust right on the way out of a corn field loaded with corn to haul its 12th load of the day to the elevator?

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I'm seeing lots of electric cars on the roads today.  Seems it didn't take long for their adoption after the technology became viable.  In 5-10 years I think the same is true of driverless vehicles..



Here's why I think a lot of this self driver rhetoric is silly.  You are all comparing it to different things.

Horse carts to trucks didn't involve the radical change that driverless to non driver will involve.

Internal combustion engine to electric engine doesn't involve the radical change that driverless to non driver involves.

You're comparing two entirely different technological advancements and because you're thinking of them as the same thing, you're kidding yourself about ease of implementation.

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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #23 - Mar 13th, 2019 at 1:47pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 13th, 2019 at 12:43pm:
You think that will make it profitable?  "Articulated" vehicles? 


Why not.  I've replaced hundreds of human laborers with 6-Axis (Articulated) Robots..  Every one of my customers said it was profitable.


Queshank wrote on Mar 13th, 2019 at 12:43pm:
Why aren't they articulated now to help human drivers better maneuver shithole alleyways on their way to that one remaining Red Owl store in Eureka, South Dakota? 


Likely because they'd be much more complicated for a human to drive than 'Turn left, Turn right, Go Forward, Go backwards' in such tight situations.


Queshank wrote on Mar 13th, 2019 at 12:43pm:
Horse carts to trucks didn't involve the radical change that driverless to non driver will involve.

Internal combustion engine to electric engine doesn't involve the radical change that driverless to non driver involves.




Streets were paved to accommodate the car.   Gasoline was a dry-cleaning solvent until the car.  How is that not more radical than getting in your car and not driving?.. 

Ever hear of any of William Phelps Eno's radical innovations... the traffic circle,  one-way streets, the stop sign..   Sounds pretty crappity smacking radical compared to getting in your car and not driving.  Wonder if that along with traffic rules was difficult to implement?



Queshank wrote on Mar 13th, 2019 at 12:43pm:
You're comparing two entirely different technological advancements and because you're thinking of them as the same thing, you're kidding yourself about ease of implementation.


Most of the heavy listing for implementation has been done...  What I was comparing was consumer acceptance. 




Ohio City, Ohio claims the first accident involving a gasoline-powered auto, a little closer to what most of us think of as a car today. In 1891, engineer James Lambert was driving one of his inventions, an early gasoline-powered buggy, when he ran into a little trouble. The buggy, also carrying passenger James Swoveland, hit a tree root sticking out of the ground. Lambert lost control and the vehicle swerved and crashed into a hitching post. Both men suffered minor injuries.

Clearly the technology was defective and as we now know, the concept of an automobile was abandoned because of this..
  

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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #24 - Mar 13th, 2019 at 2:33pm
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Fiddler wrote on Mar 13th, 2019 at 1:47pm:
Why not.  I've replaced hundreds of human laborers with 6-Axis (Articulated) Robots..  Every one of my customers said it was profitable.


See and I think this is a logical error.  Comparing apples to skyhooks if you will.

How much is an insurance agent going to charge you to put your fleet of self driving semi haulers into operation knowing they will have to block the busiest street in town in order to deliver their product?

Did property insurance dealers weigh in the likelihood of your 6-Axis robots killing the workers in the plant if a sensor fails when they were putting together estimates?

These are not the same things Fiddler.

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Likely because they'd be much more complicated for a human to drive than 'Turn left, Turn right, Go Forward, Go backwards' in such tight situations.


And yet we have articulated busses in operation.  They're just not very common.  Limited in practical application.

It's precisely because getting backing a semi down a tight alleyway and making a right hook at the end is more complicated than "turn left, turn right, go forward, go backwards" that a human driver is necessary to do it.  It's precisely because judging the exact angle you need to hit to thread a truck out of one field over an approach, accounting for the soft grass and mud and onto the dirt road leading to the highway is more than "turn left, turn right, go forward, go backwards' that a human driver is necessary to do it.

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Streets were paved to accommodate the car.   Gasoline was a dry-cleaning solvent until the car.  How is that not more radical than getting in your car and not driving?.. 

Ever hear of any of William Phelps Eno's radical innovations... the traffic circle,  one-way streets, the stop sign..   Sounds pretty crappity smacking radical compared to getting in your car and not driving.  Wonder if that along with traffic rules was difficult to implement?


I don't even understand how you could compare a human driver being in complete control of everything going on with a human driver being in zero control of everything going on.

That is the leap you're talking about.  Not having to go slower in certain areas or having to apply brakes.  Those are all scenarios where the driver is in complete control. 

They don't sound even remotely radical.  It's like you're saying putting a curve in a race track was a radical idea. 

Quote:
Most of the heavy listing for implementation has been done...  What I was comparing was consumer acceptance. 

Ohio City, Ohio claims the first accident involving a gasoline-powered auto, a little closer to what most of us think of as a car today. In 1891, engineer James Lambert was driving one of his inventions, an early gasoline-powered buggy, when he ran into a little trouble. The buggy, also carrying passenger James Swoveland, hit a tree root sticking out of the ground. Lambert lost control and the vehicle swerved and crashed into a hitching post. Both men suffered minor injuries.

Clearly the technology was defective and as we now know, the concept of an automobile was abandoned because of this..


Almost none of the heavy lifting has been done.  Just a cursory look into it on my lunch break showed multiple difficulties and problems the technology is having that indicates implementation is decades out ... as I suggested at the outset.  I'm 48.  I'll be lucky to get 30 more years.  This isn't happening in my lifetime.

Major problems I read about ...

1- Sensors have difficulty with fog, snow and rain.  They haven't figured out a solution to this problem yet.  Which is why these are only tested in places like Arizona and California. 

2- Pavement lines and curbs.   They confuse the sensors.

3- Dealing with human drivers.  This is actually what I was thinking when I said this might require 100% implementation before there's fewer problems.  Humans react slower and with less predictability than computers.  How will they interact on the road? 

"Recently in Pittsburgh, an Argo backup driver had to take over when his car stopped during a right turn, blocking an intersection when it couldn't immediately decide whether to go around a double-parked delivery truck."

4- Left turns.  "...sometimes unprotected lefts are super challenging for a human, sometimes they're super challenging for us."

5- Consumer acceptance.  Ironically its exactly the "terminator singularity hysteria" you're always warning about that I think will slow people down in accepting this technology as readily as they did the motorized carriage.

5 reasons why autonomous cars aren't coming anytime soon - ABC News - Feb 4, 2019

I dunno man.  You're talking about convincing an entire population to give up control.  That's the technological advancement you're touting.  I don't think humans do that easily.  "I don't have to drive! woot!" isn't filling the same need as "I can get from Point A to Point B faster and cheaper!" 

"I don't have to drive" isn't a need anyone is feeling the itch for. 

Getting somewhere faster is an itch as old as time. 

Being in control of getting where you're going is as old as time too.

Queshank
  

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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #25 - Mar 14th, 2019 at 10:00am
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Que, I disagree with what I think is your main premise; that the human brain is more capable than a computer's at performing complex operations, hence automated vehicles will be stalled in adoption for situations that you think are complex.

This is backwards thinking.

Take your example of the truck backing into the store on the busiest street in your town. The automated truck, because it does not require a driver, could perform the operation at 2am regularly, so the traffic issue is just not a factor. A human could not, most likely, because the precision of backing into that spot would require daylight. For the truck, loaded with sensor 'eyes' around the vehicle, would have MUCH higher situational awareness, and could not only back in, but do it faster, safer, and more precisely.

I was part of the lab that hosted the first DARPA Grand Challenge, which started this automobile automation phenomena we are now seeing. This was in 2005. In the first year it ran, the goal was to get across an off-road course (not actually a course, they could choose any path they wanted) that included desert, mountains, ditches, trails, dirt roads, and fences. The prize was $1M. The first year, no team succeeded. The second year, three teams won. The third, so many teams made it, that they deemed the 'course' too easy.

So they revised the competition, and took over an abandoned military base/town. The town had streets, stoplights, traffic obstacles (pits in the road, construction zones, etc), parking lots, and most things you'd find in a real town. The first year they ran that test, too many teams won, so they added pedestrians, other cars with normal human drivers, and again, too many teams won.

This is coming. It's going to happen much sooner than I think you realize. There is just WAY too much gain vs loss.

Now, control is a good point, and actually, I think it is the main reason that you, Ladybug, and your whole generation, have issue with autonomous vehicles. But I think you will get over it when that same automation allows you the freedom, in your extreme old age, to go where you want, when you want, how you want. Old people should not be allowed to drive cars. When I'm old, I shouldn't be allowed behind the wheel. I watched two of my grandparents get in accidents and lose their licenses because they did not want to give up the freedom of mobility. I don't blame them for wanting it, but I consider them irresponsible for putting their own freedom of mobility higher than safety. With automation, this will stop being an issue. You will have freedom in your old age, with safety bundled in.

If you're around in 20 years, you will see this. And I will bet you will not only use it, but love it.
  
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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #26 - Mar 14th, 2019 at 6:15pm
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If you can,  get this podcast.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09z4jxw


Driverless Cars and the Railways of 1830
The Long View
Jonathan Freedland compares the death of William Huskisson MP on the opening day of the Liverpool and Manchester Railway with the first death to result from driverless vehicles.



Lots of interesting parallels between this thread and past tech scares.

  

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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #27 - Mar 14th, 2019 at 11:52pm
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Limey. wrote on Mar 14th, 2019 at 6:15pm:
If you can,  get this podcast.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09z4jxw


Driverless Cars and the Railways of 1830
The Long View
Jonathan Freedland compares the death of William Huskisson MP on the opening day of the Liverpool and Manchester Railway with the first death to result from driverless vehicles.



Lots of interesting parallels between this thread and past tech scares.



I listened to it today.

It's from the days way back when we blamed the victim. So wonderful nobody does that any more!

  

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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #28 - Mar 15th, 2019 at 12:00am
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I am very intrigued by the technology. I'm also a bit uncertain about being in a vehicle I have no control over. I do know this, I love to drive and I love cars so I don't want to lose that experience.
  

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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #29 - Mar 15th, 2019 at 7:00am
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Ulysses wrote on Mar 14th, 2019 at 11:52pm:
I listened to it today.

It's from the days way back when we blamed the victim. So wonderful nobody does that any more!




I love 'the long view', it's one of the best things on BBC radio; they always seem to nail a current story with a mirror image from 50, 100, 200 years ago. It's a great format for a history programme.


Am I right in saying that documentary radio is a very small thing in America?
  

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