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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Self-Driving cars (Read 946 times)
Freon_Bale
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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #30 - Mar 15th, 2019 at 9:53am
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Michael and Jello wrote on Mar 15th, 2019 at 12:00am:
I am very intrigued by the technology. I'm also a bit uncertain about being in a vehicle I have no control over. I do know this, I love to drive and I love cars so I don't want to lose that experience.


You love to drive cars, huh?

What is it you love? The traffic? Tickets? Crappy drivers cutting you off? Finding parking spots? Maybe it is watching out for officers, so you can slow your car down while they are scanning your license plate. Or maybe it is drunk drivers, or rude drivers, or drivers who insist on going slow in the fast lane. Maybe you like to pay for insurance, or repairs.

So much to love.

Ahhhh, the 'freedom of the road'. That may have existed at some point in our history, but like so many greener pastures, I doubt it. I think it is an ideal, and never was reality.
  
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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #31 - Mar 15th, 2019 at 10:38am
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Freon_Bale wrote on Mar 15th, 2019 at 9:53am:
You love to drive cars, huh?

What is it you love? The traffic? Tickets? Crappy drivers cutting you off? Finding parking spots? Maybe it is watching out for officers, so you can slow your car down while they are scanning your license plate. Or maybe it is drunk drivers, or rude drivers, or drivers who insist on going slow in the fast lane. Maybe you like to pay for insurance, or repairs.

So much to love.

Ahhhh, the 'freedom of the road'. That may have existed at some point in our history, but like so many greener pastures, I doubt it. I think it is an ideal, and never was reality.


I think you need a V8.
  

I have a new t shirt.
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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #32 - Mar 15th, 2019 at 10:49am
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Limey. wrote on Mar 15th, 2019 at 10:38am:
I think you need a V8.


He could'a had one.

  

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Queshank
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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #33 - Mar 15th, 2019 at 10:53am
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Freon_Bale wrote on Mar 14th, 2019 at 10:00am:
Que, I disagree with what I think is your main premise; that the human brain is more capable than a computer's at performing complex operations, hence automated vehicles will be stalled in adoption for situations that you think are complex.

This is backwards thinking.

Take your example of the truck backing into the store on the busiest street in your town. The automated truck, because it does not require a driver, could perform the operation at 2am regularly, so the traffic issue is just not a factor. A human could not, most likely, because the precision of backing into that spot would require daylight. For the truck, loaded with sensor 'eyes' around the vehicle, would have MUCH higher situational awareness, and could not only back in, but do it faster, safer, and more precisely.

I was part of the lab that hosted the first DARPA Grand Challenge, which started this automobile automation phenomena we are now seeing. This was in 2005. In the first year it ran, the goal was to get across an off-road course (not actually a course, they could choose any path they wanted) that included desert, mountains, ditches, trails, dirt roads, and fences. The prize was $1M. The first year, no team succeeded. The second year, three teams won. The third, so many teams made it, that they deemed the 'course' too easy.

So they revised the competition, and took over an abandoned military base/town. The town had streets, stoplights, traffic obstacles (pits in the road, construction zones, etc), parking lots, and most things you'd find in a real town. The first year they ran that test, too many teams won, so they added pedestrians, other cars with normal human drivers, and again, too many teams won.

This is coming. It's going to happen much sooner than I think you realize. There is just WAY too much gain vs loss.

Now, control is a good point, and actually, I think it is the main reason that you, Ladybug, and your whole generation, have issue with autonomous vehicles. But I think you will get over it when that same automation allows you the freedom, in your extreme old age, to go where you want, when you want, how you want. Old people should not be allowed to drive cars. When I'm old, I shouldn't be allowed behind the wheel. I watched two of my grandparents get in accidents and lose their licenses because they did not want to give up the freedom of mobility. I don't blame them for wanting it, but I consider them irresponsible for putting their own freedom of mobility higher than safety. With automation, this will stop being an issue. You will have freedom in your old age, with safety bundled in.

If you're around in 20 years, you will see this. And I will bet you will not only use it, but love it.


I didn't say the human brain is more capable of complex tasks.  A computer is not a self driving semi.  The computer is controlling the self driving semi.  The self driving semi itself needs simple instructions.  Stop when sensor is blocked for example.  That's not a complicated process.  When it comes to tying dozens of sensors together, including factoring for the unpredictable nature of other human drivers and variances in weather, the human brain is just better right now.  Not better than the computer.  Better than the self driving semi that makes up the entire self driving semi.  Better than the sensors who have trouble reading the environment on a foggy spring morning.  Better than the sensors that lock the semi up blocking the alleyway because a trashbag is blowing around in the alley between a couple dumpsters.  Don't get yourself led down a false path by thinking a self driving vehicle is a computer.

Also you guys just keep demonstrating how little you know about the trucking industry.  Not the least of which is suggesting self driving semis are going to show up at these mom and pop shops at 2 am.  And who will be there to unload them?  Trucking schedules and delivery hours are a real thing.  The store blocking traffic I referenced for example is spending every night unloading their semi from their Supervalu supplier.  Coke and Pepsi and Pan O Gold are the early 6:30 am arrivals who have to wait for that semi to be gone and for the product to be put away before the bays are clear to receive new product.

You guys keep coming up with bizarre "change the world" solutions to what you think are minor obstacles.  Muddy, curving dirt road to pick up livestock from a feed lot?  "No problem, build a paved supertech highway with maglev sensors to channel hover semis to the farm!  You backwards technophobes are so ridiculous lolzers!"

I'm not a technophobe Freon.  I want a driverless car and I want it right the crappity smack now.  Right now I have to drive with my knee while I'm taking hits off the bong.  Do you have any idea what a pain in the ass that is?   (kidding!  Jesus calm down Ulyssese.)

I'm simply betting I won't get one in my lifetime.

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Freon_Bale
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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #34 - Mar 15th, 2019 at 10:54am
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Limey. wrote on Mar 15th, 2019 at 10:38am:
I think you need a V8.


I would prefer a chauffeur.

  
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Freon_Bale
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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #35 - Mar 15th, 2019 at 10:58am
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Queshank wrote on Mar 15th, 2019 at 10:53am:
I didn't say the human brain is more capable of complex tasks.  A computer is not a self driving semi.  The computer is controlling the self driving semi.  The self driving semi itself needs simple instructions.  Stop when sensor is blocked for example.  That's not a complicated process.  When it comes to tying dozens of sensors together, including factoring for the unpredictable nature of other human drivers and variances in weather, the human brain is just better right now.  Not better than the computer.  Better than the self driving semi that makes up the entire self driving semi.  Better than the sensors who have trouble reading the environment on a foggy spring morning.  Better than the sensors that lock the semi up blocking the alleyway because a trashbag is blowing around in the alley between a couple dumpsters.  Don't get yourself led down a false path by thinking a self driving vehicle is a computer.

Also you guys just keep demonstrating how little you know about the trucking industry.  Not the least of which is suggesting self driving semis are going to show up at these mom and pop shops at 2 am.  And who will be there to unload them?  Trucking schedules and delivery hours are a real thing.  The store blocking traffic I referenced for example is spending every night unloading their semi from their Supervalu supplier.  Coke and Pepsi and Pan O Gold are the early 6:30 am arrivals who have to wait for that semi to be gone and for the product to be put away before the bays are clear to receive new product.

You guys keep coming up with bizarre "change the world" solutions to what you think are minor obstacles.  Muddy, curving dirt road to pick up livestock from a feed lot?  "No problem, build a paved supertech highway with maglev sensors to channel hover semis to the farm!  You backwards technophobes are so ridiculous lolzers!"

I'm not a technophobe Freon.  I want a driverless car and I want it right the crappity smack now.  Right now I have to drive with my knee while I'm taking hits off the bong.  Do you have any idea what a pain in the ass that is?   (kidding!  Jesus calm down Ulyssese.)

I'm simply betting I won't get one in my lifetime.

Queshank


Ok, ok, I get you now. And I agree we have a ways to go. But  I see automated trucking tied to automated receiving. This is systemic, not exclusive. It will be the long hauls WAY before it is the local stuff, to be sure. And that means people driving those local trucks.

As to your other problem, you are going old-school again. E-cigs, man...
  
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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #36 - Mar 15th, 2019 at 1:34pm
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Freon_Bale wrote on Mar 15th, 2019 at 10:58am:
Ok, ok, I get you now. And I agree we have a ways to go. But  I see automated trucking tied to automated receiving. This is systemic, not exclusive. It will be the long hauls WAY before it is the local stuff, to be sure. And that means people driving those local trucks.


And that I agree with completely.  That's what I mean when the backbone sites may be able to start automating their trucking line much sooner than the rest of the world.  Warehouse to warehouse off two exits on I-USA in two different states isn't that complicated.  The rest of the trucking world is.  And at best, for the next few decades ... maybe in a decade ... that backbone automation might take some of the pressure off the trucking labor market and help to keep shipping costs from spiraling out of control.

But in the meantime ... if you're looking for a financially rewarding 20 to 30 year career ... hoo doggies the trucking industry is looking for you, son.

Quote:
As to your other problem, you are going old-school again. E-cigs, man...


Oh good point.  Good point indeed.  Driving while hitting a bong is dangerous.  The number of times I've dropped ash in my lap and burned myself ... oofdah.  (Again.  Just jokes people. Just jokes.)

Queshank
  

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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #37 - Mar 15th, 2019 at 1:57pm
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Queshank wrote on Mar 15th, 2019 at 10:53am:
You guys keep coming up with bizarre "change the world" solutions to what you think are minor obstacles.  Muddy, curving dirt road to pick up livestock from a feed lot?  "No problem, build a paved supertech highway with maglev sensors to channel hover semis to the farm!  You backwards technophobes are so ridiculous lolzers!"


You're trying to make it sound as though I'm saying that ALL trucks will be autonomous.. I've never suggested that.  As most things it's application specific...choose the right solution for the problem. 

e.g.

I forget the city.. some god forsaken place where it snows a lot... replaced all the bulbs in their traffic lights with energy efficient (low Wattage) LED lamps...  Winter rolls around and the snow builds up on the lens and blocks the light.  They actually considered putting in heaters to warm the traffic lights and melt the snow until one old guy says "Just put the old incandescent bulbs back in" ..

The latest and greatest is not always the solution to your problem.




  

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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #38 - Mar 15th, 2019 at 3:17pm
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AI is making progress toward overcoming most of the obstacles you cite, Q.  And given the much lower costs (fewer accidents, efficient speeds, easy scheduling, 24-hour shifts, etc), the trucking industry will likely not be put off when a small percentage of their fleet needs occasional human rescue.

Also, market forces.  Shippers (and receivers) who can accommodate robotrucks will win cost savings over those who can't.  Frank's discount furniture barn will eventually have to repave his back alley and take out those old concrete dividers, if it wants to keep costs down.

And perhaps more distressingly, big box stores will bake those savings right in with dedicated robo-shipping, bringing more economies of scale to the fore.

Will there still be human drivers?  Sure.  But not nearly as many.
  

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Re: Self-Driving cars
Reply #39 - Mar 15th, 2019 at 4:33pm
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Yeah.

In 50 years when I'm dead and gone.

I'm not arguing self driving cars are never coming.

I'm arguing self driving cars aren't around the corner. 

They're a long way out with some very significant obstacles yet to overcome.  Like technology that can see through fog.  And rain.  And snow.  Things the military has only been working on for 10,000 years.  I'm sure they'll fix that in a jiffy now that Elon Musk is on the case! 

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