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Hot Topic (More than 10 Replies) Dow tumbles 700, no, 800 points after bond market flashes a recession warning (Read 199 times)
Ulysses
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Dow tumbles 700, no, 800 points after bond market flashes a recession warning
Aug 14th, 2019 at 2:23pm
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It is exactly as I said yesterday... recession looming... Mostly Donny's fault now... trade wars triggering global recession...

Dow tumbles 700 points after bond market flashes a recession warning

Dow down 800 pts by end of day.

Quote:
The Dow fell more than 700 points Wednesday after the bond market, for the first time in over a decade, flashed a warning signal that has an eerily accurate track record for predicting recessions.

Here's what happened: The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell below 1.6% Wednesday morning, dropping just below the yield of the 2-year Treasury bond. It marked the first time since 2007 that 10-year bond yields fell below 2-year yields.

US stocks fell as investors sold stock in companies and moved it into bonds. The Dow (INDU) was about 2.8% lower. The broader S&P 500 (SPX) was also down 2.8% and the Nasdaq (COMP) sank 3.1% Wednesday.

CNN Business' Fear and Greed Index signaled investors were fearful. The VIX (VIX) volatility index spiked 26%.

Investors are on edge because the German economy shrank in the second quarter, and the US-China trade war still looms large over markets despite the latest truce. Industrial production in China grew at the weakest rate in 17 years in July.

As the global economy sputters, investors are plowing money into long-term US bonds. The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 2.05%, the lowest rate on record.


Tired of all the winning yet?
« Last Edit: Aug 14th, 2019 at 9:12pm by Ulysses »  

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Abe
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Re: Dow tumbles 700 points after bond market flashes a recession warning
Reply #1 - Aug 14th, 2019 at 2:25pm
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http://www.libertynewsforum.com/cgi-bin/politics/YaBB.pl?num=1565797321

Edit: The intent was to point out that we had a thread on this.
« Last Edit: Aug 14th, 2019 at 2:41pm by Abe »  

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The D-Man
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Re: Dow tumbles 700 points after bond market flashes a recession warning
Reply #2 - Aug 14th, 2019 at 2:29pm
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Asian markets were up today. It wasn't until Europe opened that things went sour, and the American markets followed. Germany showed negative growth of 0.1% due to poor exports. The market slide may just be a panicked overreaction to that.



Shrinking German economy 'on edge of recession' as exports stutter
Reuters, August 14, 2019
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-gdp-idUSKCN1V40HT
  

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TowardLiberty
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Re: Dow tumbles 700 points after bond market flashes a recession warning
Reply #3 - Aug 14th, 2019 at 2:29pm
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Abe wrote on Aug 14th, 2019 at 2:25pm:

Lol

You have to love the conspiracy theory implied by this.

The yield curve inversion is not investors taking profits after the rally yesterday and moving their money into a safe haven in a climate of fear.

No, it's the Fed! It's those evil (((bankers!)))
  

Open Trade, Open Borders, Taco Trucks on Every Corner

"It was the union of the anticapitalist forces of the Right and of the Left, the fusion of radical and conservative socialism, which drove out from Germany everything that was liberal.” F A Hayek
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TowardLiberty
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Re: Dow tumbles 700 points after bond market flashes a recession warning
Reply #4 - Aug 14th, 2019 at 2:30pm
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The D-Man wrote on Aug 14th, 2019 at 2:29pm:
Asian markets were up today. It wasn't until Europe opened that things went sour, and the American markets followed. Germany showed negative growth of 0.1% due to poor exports. The market slide may just be a panicked overreaction to that.

Shrinking German economy 'on edge of recession' as exports stutter
Reuters, August 14, 2019
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-gdp-idUSKCN1V40HT

What you call panicked overreaction, investors call prudent profit taking.
  

Open Trade, Open Borders, Taco Trucks on Every Corner

"It was the union of the anticapitalist forces of the Right and of the Left, the fusion of radical and conservative socialism, which drove out from Germany everything that was liberal.” F A Hayek
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The D-Man
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Re: Dow tumbles 700 points after bond market flashes a recession warning
Reply #5 - Aug 14th, 2019 at 2:32pm
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TowardLiberty wrote on Aug 14th, 2019 at 2:30pm:
What you call panicked overreaction, investors call prudent profit taking.


If it's just panic, it will be followed by discount buying and markets returned to previous levels.
  

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Ulysses
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Re: Dow tumbles 700 points after bond market flashes a recession warning
Reply #6 - Aug 14th, 2019 at 2:33pm
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Meanwhile, LNF Tumpologists are frantically trying to blame it all on the Fed. LOL. Seems to me the Fed lowered rates just a week or two ago. Huh? Rates are already very low. The Fed wants to leave some cushion for the recession to come.

Oh, wait, it's here! And not because of the Fed. It's in spite of the Fed. It's largely due to several factors:

1) Natural business cycle

2) Donny's disastrous trade wars

3) You can't fool all the people all the time
  

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TowardLiberty
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Re: Dow tumbles 700 points after bond market flashes a recession warning
Reply #7 - Aug 14th, 2019 at 2:39pm
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The D-Man wrote on Aug 14th, 2019 at 2:32pm:
If it's just panic, it will be followed by discount buying and markets returned to previous levels.

Short term we may see a bounce as some move in and buy the dip. Over the next 6-12 months, it's hard to see how we are not lower from here.
  

Open Trade, Open Borders, Taco Trucks on Every Corner

"It was the union of the anticapitalist forces of the Right and of the Left, the fusion of radical and conservative socialism, which drove out from Germany everything that was liberal.” F A Hayek
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Re: Dow tumbles 700 points after bond market flashes a recession warning
Reply #8 - Aug 14th, 2019 at 5:53pm
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Watch the leftists joy at a possible recession.
  

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patrick2
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Re: Dow tumbles 700 points after bond market flashes a recession warning
Reply #9 - Aug 14th, 2019 at 6:09pm
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Watch how soon the same herd of panicked cows runs back into the barn.   Grin
  
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